409
FXUS62 KCHS 261504
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1104 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY PUSH OVER THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LATE THIS MORNING: ALOFT, THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SOLIDLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL. AT THE SURFACE, THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE. OVERALL, A
MUCH DIFFERENT DAY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED THE ATMOSPHERE AND WE ARE
SEEING THIS EFFECT IN TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MORNING. MOST
PLACES ARE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WHICH IS 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
WHERE WE WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALSO, DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER
60S IN MANY PLACES, ALLOWING IT TO FEEL CONSIDERABLY LESS
UNCOMFORTABLE. THAT SHOULD BE THE STORY OF THE DAY, STILL HOT
BUT LESS HUMID AND LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES AS A RESULT. WE
SHOULD STILL SEE LOW TO MID 90S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD TOP OUR RIGHT AROUND OR JUST OVER 100
DEGREES. THEREFORE, NO HEAT ADVISORY NEEDED. CONCERNING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL RELATIVELY WARM
PROFILES WITH DECREASED LAPSE RATES AND CONSIDERABLY LESS
INSTABILITY THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY. BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW NEARBY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS LOW, THOUGH YOU CAN NEVER
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WHERE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT TO ENHANCE AN UPDRAFT.
TONIGHT: A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA
ALOFT AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING, BUT ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE, AND DRIFT FURTHER WEST OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
SEA BREEZE. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE SHORTLY THEREAFTER, LEADING TO
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES FOR A BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
WELL INLAND TO MID- UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN UPPER-LVL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A
BROAD LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICH
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.75 TO
2.0 INCHES. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SPARK UP
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND. DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AND IT'S POSSIBLE TO SEE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD AND ONLY
DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S (WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
THE BEACHES).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THIS CURRENT PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE AS THIS WEAK UPPER-
LVL LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH AN EXPANSIVE FIELD
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COMBINED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, MODERATE INSTABILITY (~2000
J/KG) COULD VERY WELL BUILD EACH AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO INDICATE DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STORM
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MAY
GLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. THUS, THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IF IT MAKES IT THIS FAR INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORM COULD
IMPACT ANY TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO TEMPO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
LATEST TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, HOWEVER BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: LOCAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH WHILE WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS WELL
INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT A BROAD MID-UPPER LVL LOW
COULD SPAWN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS. OUTSIDE CONVECTION, SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE
WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH AND PEAK BETWEEN 10-15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS GUST A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS INLAND. WINDS
SHOULD TIP BACK MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE EVENING, THEN
REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY BUILD 1 FT
OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: EXPECT GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IT COULD
BECOME A BIT GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
AS THE SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND (GUSTS STRONGEST ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR). SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 3 FT. OTHERWISE, NO MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS: A 1.5 FT, 8 SECOND SWELL WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES
ALONG WITH A 10-15 KT ONSHORE WIND TODAY. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS
ARE SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH SEVERAL RIP CURRENTS
REPORTED ALONG TYBEE ISLAND, GA, A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IS IN PLACE ALONG GEORGIA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...DENNIS/DPB
MARINE...DENNIS/DPB
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