742
FXUS62 KCHS 261952
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY PUSH OVER THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, CONDITIONS
DON'T LOOK PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY KIND OF
TELLS THE STORY WITH MOST OF THE AREA STRUGGLING TO EVEN DEVELOP
A CUMULUS FIELD. THE BEST CUMULUS COVERAGE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA ALONG THE COAST, AND THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH WHERE 1,500-2,000
J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTS. SO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, WE DON'T
EXPECT ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY
CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-16. WHATEVER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
INLAND AND THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.
THEREAFTER, THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A
BROAD H5 WEAKNESSES BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. AT THE
SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EACH AFTERNOON
FEATURE PW BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES. THE DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SHOULD YIELD CAPE
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE SEA BREEZE EACH PM. ON SATURDAY, NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GA COAST.
ON SUNDAY, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASED
MOISTURE, WITH PW APPROACHING 2 INCHES IN SPOTS. AT THE SFC,
MODELS INDICATE THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS. GREATER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE SHOULD
YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE H5 PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY, THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A BROAD
WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A RIDGES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, SHOULD YIELD A WIDE FIELD OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE
UNSETTLED WEATHER, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY
EACH DAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
MAY SLIDE OVER THE REGION, LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WITH LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE MORE ACTIVITY WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S TO
AROUND 90 BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DEVELOP AND REMAIN INLAND OF
THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, HOWEVER BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: WINDS WILL PEAK ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. THEN BY
LATE TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 2
FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SSE WINDS
ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...BSH/NED
MARINE...BSH/NED
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