353
FXUS62 KCHS 271901
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
301 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY PUSH OVER THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING: THE AREA REMAINS
UNDER A DEEP LAYER RIDGE, WHICH RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC WATERS, WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND INTO CENTRAL
AL. OTHER THAN THE SEABREEZE, THERE ARE NO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
AND/OR SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THAT WOULD FORCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SEABREEZE HAS PUSHED INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES, AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE SEABREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND. FEEL THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WEST OF I-95.
IF THERE ARE ANY AREAS WHERE MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES MANAGE TO
COLLIDE, THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A STRONGER STORM,
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR FAR INTERIOR GA AND SC COUNTIES, WHERE
DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 800-1100 J/KG. ALSO, THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
TONIGHT: LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE OR MOVE WESTWARD OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S, EXCEPT MID 70S TO NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THIS WEEKEND, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE H5
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SFC, A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND GA, DEEPENING
SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR A SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USING A BLEND OF
MOS AND PERSISTENCE, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG, WITH LITTLE TO NOW CIN DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND DRIFTS
INLAND, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES.
MONDAY, THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BUILD AS A
BROAD H5 TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE MID WEST AS A RIDGE CENTERED
SOUTH OF BERMUDA STRENGTHENS. GFS INDICATES THAT PW VALUES SHOULD
INCREASE TO 1.8-2 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER THAT THIS WEEKEND,
BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, H5 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SFC, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VERY
DEEP MOISTURE AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS THE H5
TROUGH NEARS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN GREATER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FAVOR VALUES IN THE LOW 90S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL DRIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.2 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD CAPE
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON CO
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD RESULT A SHORT PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, STILL FEEL PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE LATEST TAF
FORECASTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE AREA. GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS, STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET,
HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE MARINE ZONES SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RFM
MARINE...NED/RFM
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