464
FXUS62 KCHS 272135
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
535 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY PUSH OVER THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
A QUICK UPDATE HAS ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS TO 30-40% ACROSS THE
INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
TSTM REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING REMAIN THE BIGGEST
HAZARDS.
TONIGHT: LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE OR MOVE WESTWARD OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S, EXCEPT MID 70S TO NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
THIS WEEKEND, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE H5
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SFC, A BROAD TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND GA, DEEPENING
SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR A SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USING A BLEND OF
MOS AND PERSISTENCE, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG, WITH LITTLE TO NOW CIN DURING
THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND DRIFTS
INLAND, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES.
MONDAY, THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BUILD AS A
BROAD H5 TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE MID WEST AS A RIDGE CENTERED
SOUTH OF BERMUDA STRENGTHENS. GFS INDICATES THAT PW VALUES SHOULD
INCREASE TO 1.8-2 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER THAT THIS WEEKEND,
BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, H5 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SFC, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VERY
DEEP MOISTURE AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS THE H5
TROUGH NEARS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN GREATER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FAVOR VALUES IN THE LOW 90S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL DRIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.2 INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD CAPE
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON CO
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
28/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TSTMS THAT ARE
ONGOING WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IMPACT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE AREA. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS, STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET, HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE MARINE ZONES SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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