850
FXUS62 KCHS 281837
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
237 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED NORMALIZED CAPE RANGE AROUND
.1 UNIT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MLCIN REMAINED
AROUND 25 J/KG ALONG THE COAST, EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATELLITE DAY CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT INDICATED CLUSTERS OF DEVELOPING
CUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE. BASED ON THE
RECENT MESOANALYSIS AND SATELLITE TRENDS, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES,
A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES,
OTHERWISE, RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SPREAD BETWEEN A
TENTH TO AN HALF INCH. DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS SE GA/SC SHOULD ASH
OUT LATE THIS EVENING, SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK, BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ON SUNDAY, TRANSITIONING TO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC,
OTHERWISE NO REAL DEFINED SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE PRESENT. MODELS
SHOW PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2.0" OR GREATER EACH AFTERNOON, WHICH
COMBINED WITH 1500-1800 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND
OTHER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THE FORECAST FEATURES POPS GENERALLY 40-
60% EACH AFTERNOON; THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GA
WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE LOW 90S, AND MIN
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ON WEDNESDAY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE EJECTING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, LIKELY STALLING IN THE
VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, OWING TO THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. ACTIVITY
COULD CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY
STALLING NEARBY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TO START
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE FRONT/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
JULY 4TH HOLIDAY.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
18Z TAFS: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PRIOR TO THE TAFS, CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG A SEA BREEZE, LOCATED BETWEEN KCHS AND KJZI.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AND RECENT RUNS OF THE CAMS, THE KCHS AND KSAV
TAFS WILL FEATURE A MENTION OF VCTS BETWEEN 20Z TO AT LEAST 0Z
SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING, THEN INCREASING FROM THE SW AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
TONIGHT, THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
CAROLINAS AND GA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD YIELD SOUTHERLY WINDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. THIS EVENING, A SLIGHT GRADIENT PINCH
MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, YIELDING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. GUSTS ALONG THE COAST COULD
REACH 20 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT INITIALLY, THEN BUILDING TO 3-
4 FT BY TUESDAY. NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...BRS
LONG TERM...BRS
AVIATION...BRS/NED
MARINE...BRS/NED
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