511
FXUS62 KCHS 290148
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
948 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION REFORMING OVER THE ATLANTIC CLOSER TO
THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK, BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ON SUNDAY, TRANSITIONING TO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC,
OTHERWISE NO REAL DEFINED SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE PRESENT. MODELS
SHOW PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2.0" OR GREATER EACH AFTERNOON, WHICH
COMBINED WITH 1500-1800 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND
OTHER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THE FORECAST FEATURES POPS GENERALLY 40-
60% EACH AFTERNOON; THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GA
WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE LOW 90S, AND MIN
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ON WEDNESDAY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE EJECTING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, LIKELY STALLING IN THE
VICINITY INTO THURSDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, OWING TO THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. ACTIVITY
COULD CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY
STALLING NEARBY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TO START
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE FRONT/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
29/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER SOUTH OF KSAV
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONCENTRATE WEST OF THE TERMINAL. IMPACT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDDLE CAROLINAS AND GA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD YIELD SOUTHERLY
WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. THIS EVENING, A SLIGHT
GRADIENT PINCH MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LATE
THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, YIELDING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. GUSTS ALONG THE COAST COULD
REACH 20 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT INITIALLY, THEN
BUILDING TO 3- 4 FT BY TUESDAY. NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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