133
FXUS62 KCHS 291644
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1244 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM: LATEST ROUND OF OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
BEFORE REACHING THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY. THE WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE BETWEEN
2500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS A SLOW MOVING SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN PW VALUES AS
HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES, A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS ACROSS INLAND SE GA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE RETROGRADING TO THE WEST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA. PWATS EACH
DAY ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00", OR NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PER THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS BOARD,
WITH PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON (~1500 J/KG OF MU CAPE).
BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, FORCING REMAINS RATHER WEAK EACH
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND OTHER BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. EACH AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY
FEATURE A 40% TO 60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FAVOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE DIURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLIMATOLOGICAL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
THANKS TO THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH TRAILING
VORTICITY ALL THE WAY TOWARDS FL. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERALL, ABOUT 70% OF
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NBM
SHOWS ABOUT A 20% OF THE REGION RECEIVING AT LEAST AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IN A 24 HR PERIOD WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S (OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
HOWEVER, ONE SCENARIO ADVERTISED IS THAT THE COLD FRONT STALLS
FURTHER NORTH WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION FORMING IN THE MIDLANDS
AND UPSTATE OF SC WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION FORMING JUST
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE OF FL. THIS WOULD BE A DRIER SCENARIO FOR SC
AND GA AND IS CAPTURED BY ABOUT 30% OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
FRIDAY/ SATURDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT EAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, A RETURN TO A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SUMMER PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 18Z TAFS, KCLX DETECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KCHS.
IN ADDITION, VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED DEVELOPING CU NEAR
KSAV. BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TAFS WILL FEATURE A MENTION OF VCSH AT
THE START OF THE 18Z TAFS. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE CAMS, TEMPOS FROM 19-23Z WILL BE ADDED TO KCHS AND
KSAV FOR -TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY.
CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE INLAND OF THE TERMINALS BY 23Z, THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND VFR. SOUTH WINDS ARE
TIMED TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS BY 15Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK (MONDAY - THURSDAY): BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING
CONVECTION. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD PROVIDE MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
TODAY: THE LOCAL MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY, YIELDING SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO
15 KNOTS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT.
TONIGHT: WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITH NIGHTFALL, WITH
GENERALLY SSW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FORECAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2
TO 3 FT ACROSS THE WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, YIELDING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. GUSTS ALONG THE COAST COULD
REACH 20 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT INITIALLY, THEN BUILD 3 TO 4
FT BY TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER THE
WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...CPM/HAINES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page