063
FXUS62 KCHS 300517
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING, LEADING TO A DRY OVERNIGHT FOR LAND AREAS. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. BUT NO IMPACTS TO COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 DEGREES INLAND
TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: WEAK, BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER
THE SOUTHEAST IN THE UPPER LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE AREA IS
ALSO POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING IN THE MID
LEVELS, AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIXED OVER THE ATLANTIC,
OTHERWISE NO REAL DEFINED SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE PRESENT. MODELS
SHOW PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2.0" EACH AFTERNOON, WHICH COMBINED
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY FOCUS ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. THE FORECAST FEATURES POPS GENERALLY 40-60% EACH
AFTERNOON; THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GA WHERE THE
GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S, AND MIN
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH TRAILING
VORTICITY ALL THE WAY TOWARDS FL. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE NOTED
BY A SLIGHT SURGE IN PWATS TO AROUND 2.2", COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOWS SIGNS OF STALLING OVER OR NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA JUST BEFORE REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL NUDGE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS
CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
EJECT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A RETURN TO A
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER A LESSER
CONFIDENCE, BUT POTENTIAL SCENARIO, IS THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMS
ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH
COULD KEEP ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
30.06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DISSIPATED WITH
ALL TAF SITES SKY CLEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY
RETROGRADING WEST WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR ON ITS NORTHWEST FLANK.
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL BE OVER THE TRICOUNTY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
MEANWHILE, TOWARDS KSAV A SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND
WITH MOISTURE POOLING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR AN UNUSUAL/ NON- CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED SETUP WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION BEING ACROSS INLAND/ COASTAL
GA AND LOWER CHANCES TOWARDS CHARLESTON COUNTY. AS SUCH, HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT KCHS/ KJZI WHILE LEAVING THE
MENTION OF THUNDER IN FOR KSAV. CONVECTION WILL THEN COME TO AN
END LATE THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING CONVECTION. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD
PROVIDE MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
TONIGHT, THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
CAROLINAS AND GA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD YIELD SOUTHERLY WINDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
2 TO 3 FT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, YIELDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST COULD REACH 20 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT MID
WEEK, WINDS COULD SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BRS
LONG TERM...BRS
AVIATION...HAINES
MARINE...BRS
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