793
FXUS62 KCHS 011756
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
156 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD THEN LINGER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION BUT WILL STAY WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE.
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP
UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
POPS PEAK 50-60%. FURTHER NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA,
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LACKING,
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. CONVECTION WILL
LARGELY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING, HOWEVER SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 70S, EXCEPT UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH CLOUD COVER AND WIND PRESENT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ALOFT, THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH TROUGHING IN PLACE AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
SITUATED WITHIN NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, AN
UPSTREAM FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
BECOME RATHER ILL-DEFINED JUST ALONG OR OFF THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY THANKS TO THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT, AND THE PRESENCE OF A FEED OF ~2.25"
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE REGION. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S
GUIDANCE, THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INLAND SHIFT TO THE AXIS OF
GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL BE INLAND DURING THE DAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LESSEN EACH DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND THE WEAK FRONT SITUATED OFFSHORE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR WEDNESDAY, THEN BACK BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS FOR PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE LOWER END, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE EACH DAY (FAVORING THE COAST). TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TYPICAL WITH WIDESPREAD LOW 90S AND EVEN SOME MID 90S AT TIMES. WE
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEAK FRONT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
COAST AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
COULD DEVELOP ALONG IT SOMEWHERE FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NHC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
AREA WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AT
KSAV WHERE A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. PROBABILITIES AT
KCHS/KJZI WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS WILL COME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FOR THURSDAY AND THEN
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: A TIGHT PROSIER GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AVERAGING IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR UNTIL 9 PM. WINDS WILL SETTLE A BIT OVERNIGHT TO AROUND
15 KNOTS. SEAS 3-5 FEET INITIALLY WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 2-4
FEET BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ELEVATED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. THEREAFTER, THE GRADIENT IS
QUITE WEAK ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS SHOULD PEAK 2-4 FEET ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
AVERAGE 2-3 FEET THEREAFTER. ALSO OF NOTE, THE AREA THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST CONTINUES TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM ALONG A LINGERING FRONT, AND NHC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT.
RIP CURRENTS: THE PRESENCE OF SOME SWELL ENERGY AND ENHANCED
FLOW ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WILL YIELD AN ELEVATED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES AND A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330-
350.
NEAR TERM...ETM
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/ETM
MARINE...BSH/ETM
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