611
FXUS62 KCHS 020043
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
843 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD THEN LINGER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
TONIGHT: ALOFT, A MID-LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE REGION, BUT WILL STAY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO, REMAINING SUB-SEVERE AND MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR,
THEN WILL LARGELY SUBSIDE MID-LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT RESIDES. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 70S, EXCEPT UPPER 70S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH CLOUD COVER AND 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY WIND
OCCURRING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ALOFT, THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH TROUGHING IN PLACE AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
SITUATED WITHIN NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, AN
UPSTREAM FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
BECOME RATHER ILL-DEFINED JUST ALONG OR OFF THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY THANKS TO THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT, AND THE PRESENCE OF A FEED OF ~2.25"
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE REGION. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S
GUIDANCE, THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INLAND SHIFT TO THE AXIS OF
GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL BE INLAND DURING THE DAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LESSEN EACH DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND THE WEAK FRONT SITUATED OFFSHORE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR WEDNESDAY, THEN BACK BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS FOR PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE LOWER END, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE EACH DAY (FAVORING THE COAST). TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
TYPICAL WITH WIDESPREAD LOW 90S AND EVEN SOME MID 90S AT TIMES. WE
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEAK FRONT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
COAST AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
COULD DEVELOP ALONG IT SOMEWHERE FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NHC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
AREA WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV THROUGH AT LEAST
12-15Z WEDNESDAY, BUT GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ACTIVITY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION TIMING AT ANY TERMINAL
REMAINS LOW FOR INCLUSION OF RESTRICTIONS IN THE LATEST TAF
ISSUANCE. FOR NOW, VCSH AND VCTS PREVAILING GROUPS HAVE BEEN
STARTED AT CHS/JZI AT 15Z AND 21Z WEDNESDAY, WHILE VCTS HAS
ALSO BEEN INTRODUCED AT SAV AT 20Z WEDNESDAY. BREEZY WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
UP TO THE 15-18 KT RANGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS WILL COME WEDNESDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FOR THURSDAY AND THEN
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN ATLANTIC HIGH
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AVERAGING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR UNTIL 9 PM, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE.
WINDS WILL SETTLE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 15 KT ACROSS
MOST WATERS. SEAS 3-5 FT INITIALLY WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 2-4
FT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ELEVATED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. THEREAFTER, THE GRADIENT IS
QUITE WEAK ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS SHOULD PEAK 2-4 FEET ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
AVERAGE 2-3 FEET THEREAFTER. ALSO OF NOTE, THE AREA THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST CONTINUES TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM ALONG A LINGERING FRONT, AND NHC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330-
350.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB
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