909
FXUS62 KCHS 020557
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
157 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND COULD
THEN LINGER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST, POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO OUR AREA TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PWATS SHOULD RISE ABOVE 2". THE COMBINATION
OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL GENERATE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN FACT, THE NBM HAS POPS UP TO 90% WITH LOCALIZED
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS. THEREFORE, WPC HAS THE US IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN IN LOW-LYING AND POORLY
DRAINED AREAS IS THE MAIN CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS
BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING OF STORMS. BUT SPC KEPT US IN A GENERAL
THUNDER RISK. THIS IS REASONABLE BECAUSE THERE ISN'T MUCH
INSTABILITY, DCAPE, OR SHEAR, SO THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATE
THIS EVENING, WITH THE OVERNIGHT BEING DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHILE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER EITHER JUST ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HEADED
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
COLD FRONT. IF THIS SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WOULD LIKELY INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORMATION OF A LOW, THE CURRENT
FORECAST FEATURES A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS RAMPED UP THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT FOR AN AREA ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
COAST, WITH A MEDIUM (40%) CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
MANY FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION/STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE. AT THIS
JUNCTURE THE FORECAST REMAINS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
06Z TAFS: MAINLY VFR INITIALLY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL GENERATE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THOUGH, THE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE BETTER REFINED IN FUTURE
TAFS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
TIME PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
GENERATE S TO SW WINDS SUSTAINED AT GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOCAL MARINE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
FORECAST FEATURES NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FT. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED
IN NHC'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IF A LOW PRESSURE IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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