388
FXUS62 KCHS 021542
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1142 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND COULD
THEN LINGER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LATE THIS MORNING, VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT A SEA BREEZE WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AS A COLD FRONT WAS SWEEPING PUSHING FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE CAROLINAS. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A BAND OF 2 TO 2.1
INCHES BETWEEN THE SEA BREEZE AND COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION,
SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
BETWEEN 2500-3000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INITIAL DEVELOP NEAR THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST.
THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE SLOW MOTIONS, GENERALLY
REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH, OR PROPAGATE ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THESE STORMS. IN FACT, THE 12Z HREF
INDICATE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR 3"/3HR TO 10-30% WITH 1"/3HR
INCREASING TO 50-70%. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS OR OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON PACE TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHILE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER EITHER JUST ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HEADED
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
COLD FRONT. IF THIS SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WOULD LIKELY INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORMATION OF A LOW, THE CURRENT
FORECAST FEATURES A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS RAMPED UP THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT FOR AN AREA ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
COAST, WITH A MEDIUM (40%) CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
MANY FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION/STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE. AT THIS
JUNCTURE THE FORECAST REMAINS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
06Z TAFS: MAINLY VFR INITIALLY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL GENERATE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THOUGH, THE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE BETTER REFINED IN FUTURE
TAFS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
TIME PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
GENERATE S TO SW WINDS SUSTAINED AT GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOCAL MARINE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
FORECAST FEATURES NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FT. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED
IN NHC'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IF A LOW PRESSURE IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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