849
FXUS62 KCHS 030557
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
157 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL
REGION TODAY, LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH
SLOWLY SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL HOVER OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION TODAY, THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PWATS WILL
BE ABOVE 2". BUT THEY'LL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER BEHIND IT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM BOTH THE FRONT AND THE
SEA BREEZE WILL GENERATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE NBM HAS
POPS UP TO 60-70% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, WITH LOCALIZED HIGH QPF
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE, WPC HAS STILL HAS OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN IN LOW-LYING AND POORLY
DRAINED AREAS IS THE MAIN CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS
BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING OF STORMS. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES RISING TO ~1,500 J/KG WITH DCAPES
~1,000 J/KG. THESE VALUES ARE HIGHER FURTHER INLAND. THOUGH,
SHEAR IS WEAK. SO THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE PULSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE MAIN
RISK BEING DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATE THIS EVENING, WITH THE OVERNIGHT BEING DRY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S, EXCEPT COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS FRIDAY, WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE
NHC HAS A LOW CHANCE (10%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE (50%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. THE FORECAST DETAILS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF A LOW OFF THE COAST.
THE CURRENT FORECAST FEATURES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND FIRING OFF OF
THE SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW IS ABLE TO FORM, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG THE COASTLINE WOULD LIKELY INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, THE BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING AROUND 100-103F. THE
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS BEARS WATCHING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT THE
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN FUTURE TAFS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE COULD BE GREATER THIS WEEKEND IF A LOW
PRESSURE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A FRONT SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
GENERATE S TO SW WINDS SUSTAINED AT GENERALLY 5-15 KT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOCAL MARINE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
SOUTHEAST COAST REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED IN NHC'S TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK WITH A LOW CHANCE (10%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE (50%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS THIS WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GROWING CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT, WITH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL MARINE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY SEAS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 2 TO
4 FT, WITH SOME 6 FT WAVES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
NEARSHORE WATERS. EARLY NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE
WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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