783  
FXUS62 KCHS 031801  
AFDCHS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
201 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT  
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING: SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY WEAK  
AND SUBTLE FRONT/BOUNDARY SITUATED JUST INLAND AND STRETCHES  
FROM SOUTH GA UP THROUGH THE SC MIDLANDS AND INTO CENTRAL NC.  
THE MAIN GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS PRECIPITABLE WATER. VALUES  
ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL GA ARE DOWN INTO THE 1-1.25"  
RANGE WITH 2-2.25" ALONG THE COAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE  
AREA IS ALSO WITHIN BAGGY TROUGHING ALOFT WITH THE MAIN SPOKE OF  
VORTICITY ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO, WITH THIS SETUP THE BEST ENVIRONMENT  
FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE  
2,000-2,500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A TIGHT DCAPE  
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER INLAND, COINCIDENT WITH THE  
LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS, DCAPE VALUES ARE 1,000 J/KG OR  
HIGHER WHILE AREAS ALONG THE COAST VALUES ARE GENERALLY 800  
J/KG OR LOWER. SO, WHILE LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED  
INLAND, THE BETTER SEVERE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS THERE. BUT WE COULD  
STILL SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM ALONG  
THE COAST, ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR. ALONG  
THE COAST WHERE THE BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED, THE LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS HIGHER. STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW  
MOVING AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2", RAIN  
RATES COULD BE INTENSE AT TIMES AND PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2" OF  
RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS. CONVECTION MOVEMENT AND  
COVERAGE WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS  
INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE  
DIMINISHING BY THE LATE EVENING.  
 
OVERNIGHT: WHILE LAND AREAS SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY, THERE WILL  
STILL BE SUBTLE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND THAT COULD  
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT TRIGGER TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR  
THUNDERSTORM. BUT OVERALL, THE FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND  
STORMS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR  
POCKETS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT, THE THREAT FOR  
SIGNIFICANT FOG IS LOW. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO  
MID 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
INDEPENDENCE DAY: A STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF  
THE SC/GA COAST ON FRIDAY, EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY, WITH POPS  
LARGELY IN THE 20-30% RANGE. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE  
WEATHER IS LOW, BUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST/BEACHES, WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT IN THE  
97-103 F RANGE. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH SUNSET, ALTHOUGH  
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AND DRIFT  
TOWARDS AND POSSIBLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR  
NORMAL.  
 
WEEKEND: FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW  
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NHC CURRENTLY  
INDICATES A MEDIUM/60% CHANCE OF FORMATION. THE ANTICIPATION IS  
THAT THIS SYSTEM, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY  
WEAK. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DELINEATION, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.  
CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES INDICATE 40-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL  
GREATER THAN 1 INCH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NEAR THE COAST (L0-30%  
INLAND); AND AROUND 20% FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES PRIMARILY  
ALONG THE SC COAST. WHILE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A  
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERN, MINOR FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW-  
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. FOR WINDS, REASONABLE  
WORST CASE SCENARIO SHOWS THE THREAT OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF  
TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONFINED TO THE BEACHES AND COASTAL WATERS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN TO THEN FEATURE HIGH  
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND THROUGH  
MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME, WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY ESPECIALLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY IS  
MAXIMIZED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREEP BACK UP TO THE MID 90S  
INLAND OF THE COAST, WITH EVEN HIGHER HEAT INDICES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD STARTS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR  
KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV. THE PRIMARY TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORM  
IMPACTS WILL BE FROM 18-21Z, AS STORMS SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE AND  
MOVE AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. FOR THE LATE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT HOURS THE EXPECTATION IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS, BUT YOU  
CAN NEVER COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM  
AT ANY TIME GIVEN HOW MOIST THE ENVIRONMENT IS WITH A BOUNDARY  
NEAR BY. FOG POTENTIAL IS LOW OVERNIGHT AS WELL, THOUGH THERE  
COULD SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEARBY. LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY,  
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD  
COME JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THERE  
WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN  
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IF LOW  
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
THROUGH TONIGHT: OVERALL, PRETTY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD MOSTLY BE NO MORE  
THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET ON AVERAGE. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG  
THE COAST THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING. THEN OVERNIGHT, AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MAIN FOCUS FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE  
WEEKEND IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE  
SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH NHC CURRENTLY HAS A 60% CHANCE OF  
DEVELOPING. REGARDLESS, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY  
WEAK. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS  
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THERE COULD  
BE NOTABLE CHANGES IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. ANY LOW THAT  
FORMS SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND  
SEAS 2-3 FEET.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING SWELL ENERGY, ALONG  
WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF THE JULY 4 HOLIDAY, WILL LEAD TO AN  
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES LATE WEEK INTO THE  
WEEKEND. A MODERATE RISK IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY. A HIGH RISK COULD BE NEEDED, PARTICULARLY FOR THE  
CHARLESTON COUNTY, ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE  
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.  
 
 
   
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...BSH  
SHORT TERM...ETM  
LONG TERM...ETM  
AVIATION...BSH/ETM  
MARINE...BSH/ETM  
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