753
FXUS62 KCHS 040025
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
825 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
TONIGHT: RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED SEA
BREEZE PROGRESSING INLAND, LIKELY TO DEPART THE LOCAL AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES/INTERACTIONS WILL PLAY THE LARGEST ROLE IN A FEW
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNSET. GIVEN
THE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE/DISSIPATE AS DIURNAL
HEAT LOSS OCCURS HEADING INTO MID EVENING. WHILE LAND AREAS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT, THERE
WILL STILL BE SUBTLE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AROUND THAT COULD
PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT TRIGGER TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. BUT OVERALL, THE FOCUS FOR LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR POCKETS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT, THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT FOG IS LOW. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOW-
MID 70S LATE, ALTHOUGH COULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES WARMER ALONG
THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
INDEPENDENCE DAY: A STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF
THE SC/GA COAST ON FRIDAY, EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY, WITH POPS
LARGELY IN THE 20-30% RANGE. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW, BUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST/BEACHES, WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT IN THE
97-103 F RANGE. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH SUNSET, ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AND DRIFT
TOWARDS AND POSSIBLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.
WEEKEND: FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NHC CURRENTLY
INDICATES A MEDIUM/60% CHANCE OF FORMATION. THE ANTICIPATION IS
THAT THIS SYSTEM, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DELINEATION, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES INDICATE 40-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
GREATER THAN 1 INCH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NEAR THE COAST (L0-30%
INLAND); AND AROUND 20% FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES PRIMARILY
ALONG THE SC COAST. WHILE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERN, MINOR FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW-
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. FOR WINDS, REASONABLE
WORST CASE SCENARIO SHOWS THE THREAT OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONFINED TO THE BEACHES AND COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN TO THEN FEATURE HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREEP BACK UP TO THE MID 90S
INLAND OF THE COAST, WITH EVEN HIGHER HEAT INDICES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. FOG POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW, THOUGH SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT
THE TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE, BUT SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY
IMPACT THE TERMINALS, TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTION GROUPS WOULD BE
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE, EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY
GUSTY BY AROUND 18Z FRIDAY, GENERALLY UPWARDS TO 15-20 KTS AT
ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
MARINE
TONIGHT: OVERALL, PRETTY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD MOSTLY BE NO MORE THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-3 FT. HOWEVER, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
WELL OFFSHORE LATE NIGHT, TEMPORARILY PRODUCING HIGHER WINDS/SEAS.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MAIN FOCUS FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH NHC CURRENTLY HAS A 60% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING. REGARDLESS, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THERE COULD
BE NOTABLE CHANGES IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. ANY LOW THAT
FORMS SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD RETURN WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS: GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING SWELL ENERGY, ALONG
WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF THE JULY 4 HOLIDAY, WILL LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A MODERATE RISK IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A HIGH RISK COULD BE NEEDED, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY, ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...DPB/ETM
MARINE...DPB/ETM
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