136
FXUS62 KCHS 041442
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1042 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND COULD LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE LOW SHOULD THEN DEPART EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THIS MORNING, KCLX DETECTED A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DRIFT OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SC/GA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
THIS MORNING. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT THE SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND NOON, PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SEA BREEZE
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST
UPDATE WILL INDICATE SCHC TO CHC POP TIMED INLAND, WITH LOWER
POPS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK TO PEAK NEAR
90 ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW TO MID 90S INLAND. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UPDATED TO ALIGN WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE
AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE,
A STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE SC/GA COAST
TODAY, EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY OR TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL FIRE OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL,
THE NBM HAS POPS MAINLY 20-30%. INSTABILITY ISN'T TOO HIGH AS
MLCAPES STRUGGLE TO REACH 1,000 J/KG. THOUGH, DCAPES SHOULD ALSO
REACH THAT VALUE. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS VERY LOW. THIS MEANS THE
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, BUT A STRONGER STORM
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THERE
COULD ALSO BE BRIEF, HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THESE STORMS.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. THOUGH, SOME COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND DRIFT ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S, COOLER
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. HEAT INDICES SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE 100-103 F RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE FOCUS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ON THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
NHC CURRENTLY INDICATES A 60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ANTICIPATION IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DELINEATION, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH COVERAGE
WANING OVERNIGHT, AND INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT NBM
PROBABILITIES INDICATE 35-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1
INCH THROUGH SUNDAY NEAR THE COAST (L5-30% INLAND); AND AROUND 20%
FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES PRIMARILY ALONG THE SC COAST. WHILE THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERN, MINOR FLOODING
ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. FOR
WINDS, REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO SHOWS THE THREAT OF SUSTAINED
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONFINED TO THE BEACHES AND COASTAL
WATERS, MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT STUNTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS, DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAINFALL.
MONDAY: LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE SHOULD BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE (MAX POPS ~30-40%), AS THE AXIS OF
HIGHEST MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN
THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION,
WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN TO THEN FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREEP BACK UP TO THE
MID 90S INLAND OF THE COAST, WITH EVEN HIGHER HEAT INDICES. TUESDAY
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DURING THE WEEK. WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE UPPER 90S, HEAT INDICES COULD MAKE A RUN
FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F DEGREES).
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY, GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT THE
DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN FUTURE TAFS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND, AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE NE WINDS TODAY TO TURN TO THE E TONIGHT, INCREASING TO
10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IT'S POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TOWARDS THE END OF TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
3-5 FT BY TONIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MAIN FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH
NHC CURRENTLY HAS A 60% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING. REGARDLESS, THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 OR POSSIBLY 7 FEET.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THERE COULD BE NOTABLE CHANGES IN FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES. ANY LOW THAT FORMS SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS: GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING SWELL ENERGY, ALONG
WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY, WILL LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MODERATE RISK IS FORECASTED FOR TODAY. A HIGH RISK IS
FORECASTED ON SATURDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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