237  
FXUS62 KCHS 251105  
AFDCHS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
705 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE  
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES INLAND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF A 595 DM H5 RIDGE  
WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC,  
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE  
DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN  
WILL SUPPORT STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON, A WEAK  
SEA BREEZE SHOULD ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS THE CWA. THE SEA BREEZE IS  
FORECAST TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA AND THE LOWER SC  
LOWCOUNTRY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,  
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE AND HOT. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE  
FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 103 TO 106 THIS AFTERNOON, SOME  
SPOTS NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER COULD BRIEFLY REACH 108.  
 
TONIGHT, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER DEEP RIDGING. DRY AND  
VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO THE  
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE LONG-DURATION HEAT SET TO  
IMPACT THE REGION. HEAT ADVISORIES AND/OR EXTREME HEAT  
WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  
 
A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE, NOTED BY 500 MB HEIGHTS 2-3 STANDARD  
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER NAEFS, WILL BECOME SITUATED OVERHEAD FOR  
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE INLAND, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE.  
 
TEMPERATURES...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
HOTTEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD EXCEED 100F IN SEVERAL  
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HEAT INDICES WILL BE EVEN  
HIGHER, LIKELY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F) AND EVEN  
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA (113F) IN  
MANY SPOTS. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN  
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.  
 
CONVECTION-WISE...THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH JUST  
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, MAINLY FROM  
COLLETON COUNTY NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY  
WESTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SIGNALS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING  
THROUGH THE AREA ON PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POPS ARE GENERALLY IN  
THE 20-30% RANGE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE  
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS SHOWS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE  
NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY  
IS MAXIMIZED. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE PROLONGED HEAT. HEAT  
INDICES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY AND/OR EXTREME  
HEAT WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS  
EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY PASS NEAR KSAV FROM SUNRISE TO AROUND 19Z,  
THE TAF WILL MENTION VCSH. SSW WINDS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 5  
TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: PREVAILING VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT  
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STEADY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ACROSS  
THE MARINE ZONES TODAY, SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WAVE  
HEIGHTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER  
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3  
FEET.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:  
 
JULY 26:  
KCHS: 99/2010  
 
JULY 27:  
KCHS: 100/2005  
KSAV: 100/2010  
 
JULY 28:  
KCHS: 101/1949  
KSAV: 102/1949  
 
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:  
 
JULY 26:  
KCHS: 78/2012  
 
JULY 27:  
KCHS: 80/2014  
KCXM: 84/2021  
KSAV: 80/1885  
 
JULY 28:  
KCHS: 80/2016  
KCXM: 83/1999  
KSAV: 81/1878  
 
JULY 29:  
KCHS: 80/2016  
 
JULY 30:  
KCHS: 81/2016  
KCXM: 83/2016  
KSAV: 81/1878  
 
JULY 31:  
KCHS: 80/2022  
KSAV: 80/2010  
 

 
   
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...NED  
SHORT TERM...ETM  
LONG TERM...ETM  
AVIATION...ETM/NED  
MARINE...ETM/NED  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SC Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page