893
FXUS62 KCHS 260600
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES INLAND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
TODAY: STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOTED BY A H5 596 DAM WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
WITH AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL
LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL. IN FACT, MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS NO
SIGNS OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THEREFORE, WE
ARE FORECASTING NO MENTIONABLE POPS ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 90S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK. THE
CHARLESTON INTL. CLIMATE SITE (KCHS) IS EVEN EXPECTED TO NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
ADDITIONALLY, THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES RANGING 108-112 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HEAT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
TONIGHT: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH NO
CONVECTION EXPECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST PLACES AND LOWER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES
AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF RELIEF FROM THE WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE PROLONGED
HEAT EVENT. EXTREME HEAT WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ITS CENTER INITIALLY OVERHEAD THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFTING/EXPANDING WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SIT OFFSHORE WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES INLAND.
THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ARE SET FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WHEN NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE FORECAST (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
MANY SPOTS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD REACH OR EXCEED 100F.
HEAT INDICES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING EXTREME HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA OF 113F. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT EXTREME HEAT
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS HOT ON TUESDAY, BUT STILL TOASTY. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 108F. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM ON SUNDAY
WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS (POPS < 15%).
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, BEFORE A LARGER SCALE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME HEAT
ADVISORY CONCERNS (HEAT INDICES OF 108 OR GREATER) CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL SIGNALS POINT TO
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE HEAT WAVE. A FRONT COULD APPROACH THE REGION
LATE IN THE PERIOD. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
26/06Z TAF: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: PREVAILING VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
WILL PREVAIL. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-3 FT, DECREASING TO AROUND 1-2
FT LATE TONIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SPEEDS
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FEET.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 26:
KCHS: 99/2010
JULY 27:
KCHS: 100/2005
KSAV: 100/2010
JULY 28:
KCHS: 101/1949
KSAV: 102/1949
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 26:
KCHS: 78/2012
JULY 27:
KCHS: 80/2014
KCXM: 84/2021
KSAV: 80/1885
JULY 28:
KCHS: 80/2016
KCXM: 83/1999
KSAV: 81/1878
JULY 29:
KCHS: 80/2016
JULY 30:
KCHS: 81/2016
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 81/1878
JULY 31:
KCHS: 80/2022
KSAV: 80/2010
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
SCZ040-042.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ043>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BRS
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...BRS/ETM
MARINE...BRS/ETM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page