107
FXUS62 KCHS 310608
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
208 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
INLAND. A COLD FRONT MAY STALL NEARBY THIS WEEKEND AND PROMOTE
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR SC COUNTIES, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE, VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN FACT, BOTH CHARLESTON AND
SAVANNAH MAY MAKE A RUN AT TYING OR BREAKING RECORD HIGH MINS
FOR TODAY. CHANCES ARE HIGHER AT CHARLESTON TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
LATER, WHICH COULD COOL TEMPS BELOW 80.
THIS AFTERNOON: HREF INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, WITHIN THE
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE, THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. INDIVIDUAL CAMS RUNS NOT VERY BULLISH ON POPS TODAY FOR
REASONS THAT ARE NOT VERY CLEAR. HOWEVER, GIVEN SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH CAPES OVER 2000
J/KG, PWS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES, EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONGER, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A BIT MORE STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST THAN PAST
FEW DAYS, WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES: UNFORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE YET
ANOTHER DAY WHERE MAX HEAT INDICES WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS OF 108-112. HAVE KEPT CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SC COASTAL COUNTIES, SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR GA COUNTIES. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT YESTERDAY'S OBSERVATIONS,
CONCERNED WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY WESTWARD,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SC COUNTIES OF BERKELEY, DORCHESTER AND
COLLETON. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF AN
EXPANSION IS NEEDED.
TONIGHT: HREF AND SOME INDIVIDUAL CAMS INDICATING SCATTERED
CONVECTION COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE,ANOTHER VERY WARM/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 70S WELL INLAND, THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EAST AND
COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOOK FOR ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY TO PREVAIL FRIDAY, AHEAD OF OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SIMILAR TO DAYS PAST, HAVE AFTERNOON HIGHS
SURGING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES UP TO 112
DEGREES. THUS, ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, BUT THESE
WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION - SO STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES!
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, LATEST CAMS KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY, WITH CONVECTION THEN
BLOSSOMING NEAR SUNSET AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION HOLD STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT LULL IN ACTIVITY SATURDAY MORNING.
RENEWED CHANCES THEN RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS
ALONG THE COAST, WHICH COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.
WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS (2 TO 5 INCHES) HAVEN'T DEVIATED MUCH SINCE
THE LAST PACKAGE, DO THINK IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ON WHERE THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL OCCUR - AS THIS
EVENT WILL LARGELY BE CONTINGENT ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS.
LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT, PLACING THE
HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA - THOUGH THIS AXIS COULD
STILL WOBBLE IN THE COMING DAYS. SO, IN SHORT, DO EXPECT TO SEE
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND - THOUGH AMOUNTS AND LOCATION ARE STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
WHETHER YOU ARE TRAVELING, HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS, OR JUST LIVE IN THE
AREA - WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
AND HAVE A PLAN SHOULD FLOODING OCCUR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DREARY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN OUR
VICINITY. AGAIN, COULD SEE A SLIGHT LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, BEFORE BETTER CHANCES (50-80%) ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOLDS STEADY ACROSS THE REGION. ON
A POSITIVE NOTE, THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A REFRESHING CHANGE OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE
70S BECOME COMMON.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY: EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM FROM WEST-NORTHWEST, AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AND BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE KCHS, AND
POSSIBLY KJZI. FOR KSAV, IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER
STORMS WILL REACH THAT FAR EAST. SO HAVE PUT A PROB30 FOR
MID/LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN SOME NEAR THE COAST. THUS, HAVE KEPT GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS FOR KJZI THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT: SCATTERED STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: THE RISK FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
CHANCES RAMPING UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MODELS SHOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENING THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER AMZ350
AND 352. SO, HAVE GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS ACROSS THOSE ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT, SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
CONTINUE. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET, INCREASING TO 2 TO 4 FEET
LATER TONIGHT.
EXTENDED MARINE: EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
REASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR EARLY AUGUST STALLS NEARBY OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT COULD BECOME GUSTY OVER THE WEEKEND (MAINLY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON) ACROSS THE NEARSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT PINCHES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SEAS TO BE 2 TO 3 FT,
AND THEN BEGIN TO BUILD 3 TO 5 FT ON SUNDAY (MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS). OTHERWISE, NO MARINE CONCERNS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 31:
KCHS: 80/2022
KSAV: 80/2010
AUGUST 1:
KCHS: 81/1999
KSAV: 79/2020
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ047>052.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...RFM/SST
MARINE...RFM/SST
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