956
FXUS62 KCHS 251103
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
703 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING, TIMED TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS SE GA. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INLAND DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS THE TWO BOUNDARIES
INTERACT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE
AND DRIER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TONIGHT, PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, LIKELY FALLING BELOW ONE INCH LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF DEEP DRY AIR, FALLING LLVL THICKNESSES, AND LIGHT SFC WINDS
SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. IN FACT, LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS INLAND GA
TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SC/GA BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COOL, DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW OFFSHORE-MOVING COLD FRONT, AS THE HIGH CENTER
SHIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. PWATS WILL FALL TO AROUND 1.5" OR LESS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY, BUT WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING DRIER AIR, CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS
NEAR 1", TO MOVE IN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS)
WITH POPS LESS THAN 15% ARE FORECAST BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT COULD BRUSH THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES, BUT AGAIN CHANCES ARE LOW. BY THURSDAY, CONVECTION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS MOISTURE LEVELS RISE AHEAD OF A
WEAK, BROAD SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR THE GULF COAST. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PEAK IN
THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20-30%, MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COAST.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA REMAINING IN THE LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 80S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND REACHING THE
UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SEASONALLY COOL NIGHTS ARE AHEAD,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL QUICKLY ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DURING THIS PERIOD,
CONSIDERING MUCH DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
SURFACE LOW. GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS KEEPING
THE LOW SHORT-LIVED AND MOVING TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA BEFORE
DISSIPATING, WHILE THE ECMWF, A TOUCH STRONGER, SHIFTING IT ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.
REGARDLESS, SOME DEGREE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE. WET CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY
EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH AGAIN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE KCHS AND KSAV
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A
SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: NO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNS FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MARINE ZONES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE AROUND 10
KTS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
EVENING, PUSHING EAST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 3
FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW OFFSHORE-MOVING COLD FRONT.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AFTER FROPA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH NO MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...BRS
LONG TERM...BRS
AVIATION...BRS/NED
MARINE...BRS/NED
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