051
FXUS62 KCHS 251746
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION, WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A CONVERGENT LINE IS ALSO OBSERVED AT THE
SURFACE JUST WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE
EAST SIDE AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE, WHICH IS
THE COLD FRONT WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE PAST FEW DAYS. SATELLITE
SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALSO OBSERVED ON RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST AND
EVENTUALLY ONTO THE COASTAL WATERS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE WE'VE
GOT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, FORCING ITSELF IS RATHER
WEAK ESPECIALLY WHEN WORKING AGAINST THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DESCENT IN
THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET, THUS KEEPING AREAL
COVERAGE SCATTERED AND OVERAL STRENGTH OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOW.
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME, WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO FEEL REFRESHING COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
AS LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS QUASI-ZONAL
THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) FORECAST TO RETURN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. DESPITE THERE BEING AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE, OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL REMAIN RATHER LOW, WHICH SHOULD
HELP KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MODEL CONSISTENCY BEGINS TO WANE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO PLACE THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOW A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM PROGGED TO NUDGE CLOSER TO OUR AREA. EITHER
SOLUTION LOOKS TO RESULT IN SOME FORM OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO NARROW IN ON SPECIFIC
AMOUNTS AND PLACES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE COMING
DAYS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S, WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS ONLY RISING INTO THE
UPPER 70S BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA ARE OCCURING THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME VERY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SPOTTY AND WEAK
OVERALL, THOUGH STILL CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
MAY BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN NORTHERLY.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LARGELY
PREVAIL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE.
MARINE
REST OF TODAY, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MARINE
ZONES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE
AROUND 10 KTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THIS EVENING, PUSHING EAST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2
TO 3 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING OFFSHORE COLD FRONT.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AFTER FROPA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH NO MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...APT
SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...APT/SST
MARINE...APT/SST
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