920
FXUS62 KCHS 252357
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
757 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
TONIGHT: A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND INTERACTS WITH
A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE BEACHES AND
OFFSHORE. LATEST TRENDS SHOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SPAWNED TO BE
SOMEWHAT BRIEF AND PROGRESSIVE ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
BEGINNING TO WANE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID EVENING,
TRACKING FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP USHER IN A NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS ALL
LAND AREAS WITHIN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND RESULT IN PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS BY MID-LATE EVENING. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL FAVOR NOTICEABLY COOLER LOWS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER
70S NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME, WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO FEEL REFRESHING COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
AS LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS QUASI-ZONAL
THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) FORECAST TO RETURN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. DESPITE THERE BEING AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE, OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL REMAIN RATHER LOW, WHICH SHOULD
HELP KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MODEL CONSISTENCY BEGINS TO WANE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO PLACE THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOW A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM PROGGED TO NUDGE CLOSER TO OUR AREA. EITHER
SOLUTION LOOKS TO RESULT IN SOME FORM OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO NARROW IN ON SPECIFIC
AMOUNTS AND PLACES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE COMING
DAYS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S, WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS ONLY RISING INTO THE
UPPER 70S BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LARGELY
PREVAIL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE.
MARINE
TONIGHT: SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER COASTAL WATERS EARLY
EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AND CONTINUES EASTWARD
OFFSHORE DURING EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 10-15 KT,
WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 20 KT ACROSS NEARSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS PRIOR TO FROPA. AFTER FROPA, EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST
AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING OFFSHORE COLD FRONT.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AFTER FROPA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH NO MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...DPB/SST
MARINE...DPB/SST
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