481
FXUS62 KCHS 261702
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
102 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD THEN PASS NEARBY LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. TAKING A STEP OUTSIDE CONFIRMS THE RATHER PLEASANT
CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT,
WITH THE BIGGEST RISK BEING TOO MUCH SUNSHINE AS THE UV INDEX
CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ASHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONTINUING
THE QUIET CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME COLD-AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH GETS PUSHED
TOWARDS THE AREA, LEADING TO SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEDNESDAY: A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA WILL
DESCEND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS, CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 1 INCH, OR
LESS. THEREFORE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN
CHANCES FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IS ON TAP, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER
INLAND SPOTS COULD EVEN FALL INTO THE LOW 60S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NORTHERN
2/3 OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL START TO ERODE ON THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SIMULTANEOUSLY,
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE A BROAD, WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED W/ CAPE VALUES RANGING 200-300 J/KG, THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THIS AFOREMENTIONED LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE
GULF WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE FL/GA COASTLINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AND POPS
PEAK 40-50% IN THE AFTERNOON. IT'S STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH COVERAGE
THERE WILL BE AS IT'S VERY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY,
AND A LOW 80S ON FRIDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD/PRECIP. COVERAGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LVL TROUGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, EXPECT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY,
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUE ON THE ONSET OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. NBM CONTINUES TO
SHOWCASE POPS IN THE 30-40% INLAND TO 50-60% ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. WIND DIRECTION OUT OF
THE NORTH WILL REMAIN FAVORED, THOUGH WINDS WILL GO CALM
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LARGELY
PREVAIL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.
MARINE
REST OF TODAY: WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, WITH 2 TO 3 FT WAVES. WINDS BECOME
VARIABLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, THOUGH OVERALL REMAINING OUT OF THE
NORTH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
FORECAST, EXPECT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
AN WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF COULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS LOW AND THIS HAS LEFT LITTLE CONSENSUS IN TERMS OF WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, NO MARINE CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...APT
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...APT/DENNIS
MARINE...APT/DENNIS
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