075
FXUS62 KCHS 270431
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1231 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE. A STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ASHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, CONTINUING THE QUIET CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME
COLD-AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH GETS PUSHED TOWARDS THE AREA, LEADING TO SEASONABLY COOL
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEDNESDAY: A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA WILL
DESCEND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS, CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 1 INCH, OR
LESS. THEREFORE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN
CHANCES FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IS ON TAP, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER
INLAND SPOTS COULD EVEN FALL INTO THE LOW 60S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NORTHERN
2/3 OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL START TO ERODE ON THURSDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SIMULTANEOUSLY,
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE A BROAD, WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED W/ CAPE VALUES RANGING 200-300 J/KG, THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THIS AFOREMENTIONED LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE
GULF WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE FL/GA COASTLINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AND POPS
PEAK 40-50% IN THE AFTERNOON. IT'S STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH COVERAGE
THERE WILL BE AS IT'S VERY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY,
AND A LOW 80S ON FRIDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD/PRECIP. COVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LVL TROUGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, EXPECT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY,
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUE ON THE ONSET OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. NBM CONTINUES TO
SHOWCASE POPS IN THE 30-40% INLAND TO 50-60% ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
6Z TAFS: VFR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN <10KTS FROM THE NE THIS
MORNING, SHIFTING FROM THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LARGELY
PREVAIL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.
MARINE
TONIGHT: WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, THOUGH
OVERALL REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH. WAVES WILL BE 2-3 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
FORECAST, EXPECT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. AN WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
COULD MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND THIS HAS LEFT LITTLE CONSENSUS IN
TERMS OF WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, NO
MARINE CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...
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