537
FXUS62 KCHS 270540
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE. A STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT H5, THE BROAD BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE DEEP DRY AIR WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1 IN. IN
ADDITION, AFTERNOON MIXING MAY EXTEND UP TO 6 KFT, LOWERING SFC
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST.
GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, LITTLE TO NO SBCAPE
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SEA BREEZE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND BY
MID-AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SEA BREEZE
MAY ONLY SUPPORT A PASSING BAND OF SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A LARGE PATCH OF CIRRUS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LINGERING COOL LLVL
THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY, CAUSING HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY LOWER
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR
NORTH THURSDAY MORNING, WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY. AT THAT TIME,
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF COULD MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT, SHIFTING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THEN
OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO SATURDAY. THOUGH, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHAT THE PWATS WILL BE. THE NBM HAS POPS
INCREASING EACH DAY, STARTING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, WITH A SLIVER OF CHANCE POPS ALONG THE GA
COAST ON THURSDAY. POPS INCREASE TO CHANCE EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY,
THEN LIKELY ON SATURDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW EACH DAY DUE
TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. BUT BRIEF, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS OF THIS TYPING, WPC HAS OUR AREA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH OF THESE DAYS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON THURSDAY, THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY, THEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON SATURDAY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
POSSIBLY MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH OUR REGION. A STATIONARY
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
6Z TAFS: VFR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN <10KTS FROM THE NE THIS
MORNING, SHIFTING FROM THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION AT AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS SHOULD RANGE AROUND 2 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. BEYOND 40 NM FROM SHORE, SEAS COULD APPROACH 3 FT AT
TIMES.
EXTENDED MARINE: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF COULD MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT, SHIFTING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THEN
OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, NO
MARINE CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...NED
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