108
FXUS62 KCHS 281054
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
654 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
THROUGH TODAY. THEREAFTER, A STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND CAUSE FOR
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A BROAD H5 TROUGH THROUGH TODAY,
SHIFTING TO EAST TONIGHT. AT THE SFC, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW
VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SEA BREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY, A FIELD OF
SHALLOW CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER SCT TO BKN CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURE RISE INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS SC LOWCOUNTRY
TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SE GA, WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
SE GA. ISOLATED CELLS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME SE GA
DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
TONIGHT, ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY AND COOL. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S INLAND TO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE ALOFT FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
WHILE SHORTWAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING. AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT
WILL BE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, DRAPED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODELS DEPICT A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT, PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TOWARDS OFFSHORE SC. THE STALLED FRONT AND THE DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE FOCUSES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT OF A DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. MANY FORECAST
DETAILS WILL BE IMPACTED IF THE LOW REMAINS FURTHER OFFSHORE OR
MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH OF THE COASTLINE. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, WHEN
SHORTWAVES WILL BE PASSING ALOFT. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8", WHICH ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMATOLOGY WOULD BE NEAR
THE DAILY MAXIMUM. THEREFORE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE,
WITH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKING THE REGION IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, OWING TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM,
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DOMINATING OVER THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE ANOTHER COASTAL LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE EXISTS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW. HOWEVER, INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR BELOW NORMAL TREND.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR. CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR A EAST-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION AT AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A STALLED FRONT WILL BE PRESENT JUST SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS FORECAST MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS, AS ANOTHER LOW
TRIES TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...CPM/NED
MARINE...CPM/NED
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