788
FXUS62 KCHS 281707
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
107 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR WELL
OFFSHORE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES
BY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG PARTS
OF THE GEORGIA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS; OTHERWISE, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LOWS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID-LVL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE
SHORTWAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING. AT THE SURFACE, A STALLED
FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS LOW SHOULD PROGRESS ALONG WITH THE MOTION OF THE
FRONT AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY. THE STALLED FRONT AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE FOCUSES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. IT'S STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
COVERAGE THERE WILL BE AS IT'S VERY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS LOW. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY LIMITED (~300-400 J/KG), BUT BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE REGION UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY, AND A LOW 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD/PRECIP. CHANCES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LVL TROUGH ALOFT, ANOTHER WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRIES TO FORM OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE HIGH SETS UP NORTH OF THE
REGION AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY PLACE US IN A WEDGE SITUATION.
THIS COULD INHIBIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE RECENT RUN OF THE NBM SUGGESTS
A DECREASING TREND IN POPS, BUT WILL SEE IF THIS CONTINUES TO
HOLD TRUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
28/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 29/18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LARGELY
PREVAIL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE.
MARINE
TONIGHT: EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT
WILL PERSIST AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS WELL OFFSHORE.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY OVER THE WATERS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW TRIES TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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