470
FXUS62 KCHS 111125
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THIS MORNING. IT'LL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ENTIRE EAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY OVER THE EAST COAST, WITH A STATIONARY FRONT WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.
THOUGH, THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST. EXPECT N TO NE WINDS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND DIRECTION AND OCCASIONAL CLOUDS SHOULD
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
FAR INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, AT THE SFC, WILL STILL SEE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATE, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, FOR THOSE WITH ANY OUTDOOR/RECREATIONAL PLANS, DO THINK
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED, THOUGH SOME
WEAK RIDGING MAY BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY.
NONETHELESS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL AT THE SFC, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. OUTSIDE OF THIS, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
12Z TAFS: SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
FLOATING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NE, GENERATING BORDERLINE
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KCHS AND KJZI
THROUGH THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS THE
STRATUS DISSIPATES. AT KSAV, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH THERE COULD BE A
FEW PERIODS OF RESTRICTED CEILINGS DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING STRATUS.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
INLAND, WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD N TO NE SURFACE WINDS 10-15 KT. SEAS SHOULD
AVERAGE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT FOR THE GA WATERS BEYOND
20 NM.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS BECOMING A BIT MORE
BREEZY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KTS WILL BECOME COMMON, WITH
SEAS RISING BETWEEN 5 TO 6 FEET. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN
THE COMING FORECAST CYCLES. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAX HEADING INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT
ALL OF OUR BEACHES TODAY. THE MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND LUNAR PERIGEE.
ALSO, TOTAL WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH FROM LARGE TIDAL
DEPARTURES DUE TO THE PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ELEVATED
NORTHEAST WINDS. AS A RESULT, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SALTWATER FLOODING ACROSS COASTAL ZONES OF
SE SC AND SE GA DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCZ049-050.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...SST
MARINE...SST
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