154
FXUS62 KCHS 111811
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
211 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THICK CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE CHS TRI-COUNTY HAS LIMITED
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS OF 2 PM. SATELLITE
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS WILL ERODE
FROM THE WEST AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SE GA
TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT,
A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP AND DRIFT INLAND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HREF INDICATES THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-26 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
DRY WIND STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS UPPER-LVL TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO CREEP INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS DRIER AIR WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALMOST TO ZERO, HOWEVER IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO ADD THAT DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER
60S ALONG THE COASTLINE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE STICKS AROUND AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND QUIET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LOW FORMING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WITH THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 18Z TAFS, SATELLITE AND SFC BASED OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED A LARGE PATCH OF MVFR OVER KCHS AND KJZI. THE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE COAST INLAND AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TAFS WILL INDICATE VFR AT 19Z AT KJZI
AND 20Z AT KCHS. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH VFR SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY A SFC
RIDGE. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP GUSTS IN THE TEENS AT KCHS AND
KJZI BY MID-DAY FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK,
EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTED CEILINGS DUE TO LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD NE SURFACE WINDS
10-15 KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-4 FT WITHIN 10 NM AND 3-4 FT
FOR THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER
GUSTY (W/ GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE) OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT ON FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN INCREASE 5 TO 6 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT (AND 6 TO 7 FT
IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS). A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS,
ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS, AND ELEVATED SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALSO, A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON
BEACHES TOMORROW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TOTAL WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH FROM LARGE TIDAL DEPARTURES DUE
TO THE PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS. AS A
RESULT, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SALTWATER
FLOODING ACROSS COASTAL ZONES OF SE SC AND SE GA DURING THE MID-DAY
HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...DENNIS/NED
MARINE...DENNIS
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