547
FXUS62 KCHS 120025
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
825 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT
THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
TONIGHT: ANY LIGHT/ISOLATED PRECIP THAT ATTEMPTS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
LOCALLY, SETTING UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF DRY CONDITIONS AND STEADY
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LOWER STRATUS COULD
RETURN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHILE SOME
CIRRUS PERSISTS ALOFT, KEEPING TEMPS MORE MILD LATE. IN GENERAL,
LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES (WARMEST ALONG THE BEACHES).
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS UPPER-LVL TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO CREEP INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS DRIER AIR WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALMOST TO ZERO, HOWEVER IT IS NOTEWORTHY TO ADD THAT DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER
60S ALONG THE COASTLINE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE STICKS AROUND AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND QUIET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LOW FORMING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WITH THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LOWER STRATUS COULD RETURN TO THE
TERMINALS LATE NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME, TEMPO MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED AT CHS/JZI WHILE LOWER
STRATUS POTENTIALLY ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (15-20 KTS), MAINLY AT CHS/JZI
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK,
EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTED CEILINGS DUE TO LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD NORTHEAST WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE (OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR)
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN APPROACHING DAYBREAK.
SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD LATE, AVERAGING BETWEEN 2-4 FT WITHIN
20 NM OF THE COAST AND 3-4 FT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER
GUSTY (W/ GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE) OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT ON FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN INCREASE 5 TO 6 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT (AND 6 TO 7 FT
IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS). A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS,
ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS, AND ELEVATED SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENHANCED THROUGH SATURDAY, AND
COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TOTAL WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH FROM LARGE TIDAL DEPARTURES DUE
TO A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS. AS A
RESULT, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SALTWATER
FLOODING ACROSS COASTAL ZONES OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE MID-DAY HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...DENNIS/DPB
MARINE...DENNIS/DPB
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