377
FXUS62 KCHS 142345
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND MEANDER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
THIS EVENING: THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET. THE
FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO SIT IN AN AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
WITH A SURFACE LOW SITTING TO THE EAST OFF THE NC COAST. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOW 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A
FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE INLAND.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE UPPER LEVELS FEATURE A REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE UPPER HIGH REMAINING
QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WHILE
AN OFFSHORE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE NC OUTER BANKS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WELL
OFFSHORE. A BRIEF INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. POPS RANGE FROM 10-20% FOR CHARLESTON, BERKELEY, AND
DORCHESTER COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR RAIN-FREE,
WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES AND CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS, AND SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE EXCEPTION BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND,
WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD RIDGING FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY MAX
OUT IN MID 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON (A BIT COOLER AT THE
BEACHES) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: THERE ARE NO HIGH CONFIDENCE
CONCERNS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: WINDS AND SEAS AND DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL, UP TO 15-20 KNOTS IN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS, MAINLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GA
WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-5 FEET.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE PINCHED GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INLAND WEDGE WILL RELAX MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE BEGINS
TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS, SHIFTING THE
TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE WATERS. OFFSHORE
CONDITIONS WILL HOVER JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
WITH SEAS AVERAGING 3-5 FT AND NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20-23 KT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TUESDAY
WITH NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MONDAY
AND LINGERING SWELL WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO LARGE TIDAL DEPARTURES
RESULTING FROM A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE WILL AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AT CHARLESTON WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE ON
MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL DIMINISH TO THE
POINT WHERE COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT BE A CONCERN.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...BRS
LONG TERM...BRS
AVIATION...BRS/BSH
MARINE...APT/BRS
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