359
FXUS62 KCHS 151745
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
145 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MEANDER NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
THEN APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA.
THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY BECOME REINFORCED THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN NUDGES TOWARD THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW PROPAGATING FARTHER NORTH
INLAND. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP DRIVE LOW PWATS AND CONSIDERABLE
MID-LVL DRY AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA, AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS A
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND PREVAILS OFF THE THE SFC. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DECOUPLE EARLY EVENING AWAY FROM THE COAST, BUT LINGERING
CIRRUS COULD LIMIT A BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD STILL
DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND, AND UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT
THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS
TUESDAY MORNING. IT'LL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY RISE OVER OUR AREA. AT
THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS TUESDAY MORNING. IT'LL FOLLOW THE SAME TREND AS THE MID-LEVEL
LOW, GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP PWATS
FAIRLY LOW. LIKEWISE, THE NBM DOESN'T HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST. IF ANYTHING, THEIR SHOULD JUST BE SOME FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY), TO THE MID 80S EVERYWHERE ELSE ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL MODERATE 1-2 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S FAR INLAND, TO
THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN APPROACH OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE
SOUTH ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST, THEN NUDGES TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL FAVOR A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS REGION
THROUGH LATE DAY PRIOR TO WEAKENING DURING THE NIGHT. IN GENERAL, 10-
15 KT NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL BE COMMON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20 KT BETWEEN 10-20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST INTO EARLY
EVENING. BY MID-LATE EVENING, WINDS SHOULD BACK TO NORTH/NORTHEAST,
REMAINING IN THE THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
EXTENDED MARINE: LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MEANDER NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD SUSTAINED WINDS OF NO MORE THAN 15 KT. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND, POSSIBLY
BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR ALL
BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING. FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND, THE RIP CURRENT
RISK LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE SLACKENING WIND FIELD AND DECREASING WAVE
HEIGHTS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH TIDE COULD PEAK NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW (MINOR) AT THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR TIDE GAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A DEPARTURE AROUND 0.75 FT, SUGGESTING TIDES TO FALL JUST
SHORT OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL
COLLETON COUNTIES.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE FROM SEPTEMBER
16-18TH FOR COMPONENT UPGRADES. USERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO USE
ADJACENT WSR-88D RADAR SITES. THESE RADARS INCLUDE:
KCAE: COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX: WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX: JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX: MOODY AIR FORCE BASE, GA
KJGX: ROBBINS AIR FORCE BASE, GA:
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB
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