253
FXUS62 KCHS 152258
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
658 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MEANDER NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
THEN APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
EARLY THIS EVENING: SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE FORECAST
AREAS SITS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE LOW SITUATED
JUST OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND
AND INTO EASTERN NC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHAT LITTLE DIURNAL
CUMULUS THERE WAS THIS AFTERNOON HAS STEADILY DISSIPATED AND
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
SEASONALLY COOL NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 6-8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE INLAND TIER, TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE
COAST. LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING, THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW MID
50S IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER
BANKS TUESDAY MORNING. IT'LL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE
ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S. ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY RISE OVER
OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TUESDAY MORNING. IT'LL FOLLOW THE
SAME TREND AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW, GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH INTO
WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FORCE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP PWATS FAIRLY LOW. LIKEWISE,
THE NBM DOESN'T HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. IF
ANYTHING, THEIR SHOULD JUST BE SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY), TO THE MID 80S EVERYWHERE ELSE ON TUESDAY. HIGHS
WILL MODERATE 1-2 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S FAR
INLAND, TO THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING
AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR.
MARINE
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTH ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST, THEN NUDGES TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
THIS WILL FAVOR A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS REGION THROUGH
LATE DAY PRIOR TO WEAKENING DURING THE NIGHT. IN GENERAL, 10-
15 KT NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL BE COMMON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT BETWEEN 10-20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST INTO
EARLY EVENING. BY MID-LATE EVENING, WINDS SHOULD BACK TO
NORTH/NORTHEAST, REMAINING IN THE THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT ACROSS OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.
EXTENDED MARINE: LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MEANDER NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, THEN
DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD SUSTAINED WINDS OF NO
MORE THAN 15 KT. A COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTH NEXT WEEKEND, POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE FROM SEPTEMBER
16-18TH FOR COMPONENT UPGRADES. USERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO USE
ADJACENT WSR-88D RADAR SITES. THESE RADARS INCLUDE:
KCAE: COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX: WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX: JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX: MOODY AIR FORCE BASE, GA
KJGX: ROBBINS AIR FORCE BASE, GA:
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB
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