049
FXUS62 KCHS 162329
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
EARLY THIS EVENING: THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO SIT ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE LOW POSITIONED NEAR THE
DELMARVA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ALMOST NO CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF THIN
CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH. ON RADAR, KCAE SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
JUST ON THE GA SIDE OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE SC UPSTATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS NO INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, AND THE CLUSTER IS SITTING IN A REGION OF 250-500
J/KG OF MLCAPE. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE EVEN APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE,
IT SHOULD BE YET ANOTHER VERY QUIET NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S
INLAND, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. MUCH LIKE LIKE
NIGHT, WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW OF THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS
APPROACH THE MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
ALOFT, LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE OF WEAK
TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE APPALACHIANS INTO LATE WEEK WITH SOME SUBTLE HINTS OF WEAK
RIDGING OCCURRING BY THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA,
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE REMAINS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON
THURSDAY GIVEN H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THE MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER WILL BE
ATTRIBUTED TO WARMING TEMPS, AS 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES INCREASE
EACH DAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH SHIFTS
NORTH/WEAKENS AND BECOMES REPLACED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING. IN
GENERAL, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER 80S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE COAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY UPPER 80 TO
LOWER 90 HIGH TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS,
GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE
COAST EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ALOFT, WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
INCOMING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES, LIKELY RESULTING IN NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS BY LATE
WEEKEND WITHIN A NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW. LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE LATEST FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY (20-40%),
WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS HIGHER AS TROUGHING OCCURS ACROSS THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND DRIVES ACTIVITY
ONSHORE. IN GENERAL, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW-MID 80S
NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WELL INLAND SATURDAY, THEN
GENERALLY LOW-MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA)
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS (15-20 KT) ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAIL
ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR COASTAL WATERS. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS,
WHILE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT FOR THE GA
WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY, RESULTING IN NO MARINE
CONCERNS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IN GENERAL,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT WITH SEAS
RANGING BETWEEN 1-3 FT, LARGEST ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND, PLACING A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS BETWEEN A WEDGE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND TROUGHING EAST OF
FLORIDA. CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS
A PORTION OF LOCAL WATERS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING UP
TO 5-7 FT.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE FROM SEPTEMBER
16-18TH FOR COMPONENT UPGRADES. USERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO USE
ADJACENT WSR-88D RADAR SITES. THESE RADARS INCLUDE:
KCAE: COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX: WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX: JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX: MOODY AIR FORCE BASE, GA
KJGX: ROBBINS AIR FORCE BASE, GA:
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...DPB
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