999
FXUS62 KCHS 030436
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1236 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
FEELING QUITE FALL-LIKE OUT THERE, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
UPPER 70S, DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST, AND A
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A ~1030MB HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS CENTERED ON THE NORTHEAST COAST, WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE GULF,
LEADING TO A HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST, THOUGH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN SOME VERY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A
ROUGHLY 20% CHANCE FOR THESE STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH
CHANCES EXPANDING UP THE REST OF THE GEORGIA COAST INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AT UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROP
TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST, WITH
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING.
ALOFT, H500 HEIGHTS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS OUR AREA, THOUGH
WEAK TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF STREAM. NHC
HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA WITHIN THE TROUGH BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS WITH A 10% OF FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: THE PSEUDO REX CONFIGURATION OF THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTLING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF/LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG INLAND WEDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. DIMINISHES AND UNLOCKS THE PARENT HIGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PARENT HIGH TO SINK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, ENDING UP OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER BY
SUNDAY. UNTIL THIS OCCURS, A STIFF NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST WITH SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH LURKING JUST OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE
STILL LIKELY OVERDEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSIVE MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD LEFT
IN THE WAKE OF IMELDA; A KNOWN BIAS IN THE VARIOUS MODEL SUITES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE COOL/COLD SEASON. AT LEAST A DOWNWARD RECENT HAS
BEEN NOTED. STILL EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO IMPACT
THE BEACHES, BUT MOST OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WILL BE REDIRECTED
INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND POSSIBLY FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL GEORGIA.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER-MID 70S AT THE
BEACHES. A PINCHED GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND WEDGE WILL
KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT THE BEACHES BOTH DAYS.
SUNDAY: AN INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AS THE REGION BECOMES PINNED BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OFF OF
CAPE HATTERAS AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST GULF.
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE, POSSIBLY EVEN
A SUBTLE SURFACE LOW, DEVELOPING NEAR A STALLED FRONT OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO BAND OF VORTICITY PASSING THROUGH
ALOFT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF, THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY LARGE RAIN SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THERE IS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG ANY
DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH BECOMES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM COMPARED TO THEIR
OPERATIONAL COUNTERPARTS. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP MUCH WEAKER,
THE SAME BAND OF VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING
COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE TO ALSO AID IN RAIN PRODUCTION. BOTTOM LINE,
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT THE
ASSOCIATED QPF IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 2-2.25", SO THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY SOME MINOR FLOODING, MAINLY IN LOW-
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HIGHS WILL WARM IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MOIST CONDITIONS LINGER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN WITH UPPER PATTERN FAVORING A PRETTY STEADY STREAM OF
HARD-TO-TIME IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
NBM POPS WERE GENERALLY FAVORED, SHOWING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
MONDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE 70S AT THE COAST.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
06Z TAFS: VFR. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: THERE ARE NO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNS.
THE RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: A PINCHED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE LAST SWELLS FROM IMELDA WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES, EXCEPT THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: PINCHED GRADIENT CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH AND WINDS BECOME
MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
KEEP SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR MOST LEGS. PEAK SEAS WILL AVERAGE 5-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 8-
11 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
RIP CURRENTS/HIGH SURF: A HIGH RISK RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. NWPS BREAKING WAVE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS BREAKERS AT 4-6 FT
WITH SETS UP TO 7 FT HOLDING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE UPCOMING FULL MOON (OCT 7) AND
PERIGEE (OCT 8). THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE POSSIBILITY OF
COASTAL FLOODING TO BECOME MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ENTIRE
COASTLINE, INCLUDING BOTH DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND FORT PULASKI.
SALTWATER INUNDATION COULD THEN OCCUR DURING BOTH THE MORNING
AND EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT, PERSISTENT FAVORABLE
WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE UP TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-
141.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ117-119-139-
141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page