316  
FXUS62 KCHS 062350  
AFDCHS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
750 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL  
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH  
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW  
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS  
WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS START  
TO RELAX AND BACK FROM THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK MID-LEVEL INVERSION  
IS FORECAST TO FORM THIS EVENING HELPING TO TRAP MOISTURE NEAR  
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL FULLY DECOUPLE OVER INLAND GEORGIA AND  
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT  
WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES/INLAND GEORGIA. EXPECT LOW  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S AT AREA  
BEACHES.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ALONG THE  
FAR SOUTHWEST FLANKS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL  
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN  
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN  
MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WITH AT LEAST SOME LOW-END RISK FOR  
SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT  
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY MORNING WHEN SOME SUBTLE COASTAL  
TROUGHING DEVELOPS NEAR THE BEACHES AND NEAR TERM POPS WILL REFLECT  
THIS IDEA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL  
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS BOTH  
AFTERNOONS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES  
WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO  
THE LOWER-MID 70S AT THE BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY: A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY WELL  
TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH HELP DRIVE A COLD  
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A STRONG  
WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE DAY AS 1035 HPA  
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WEDGE FRONT AS  
IT DROPS SOUTH. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK  
WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING ONLY WEAK-MODERATE QUASI-  
GEOSTROPHIC FORCING NOTED WITH A BAND OF PASSING, MOSTLY CHANNELED  
VORTICITY ALOFT. CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE  
WEDGE STRENGTHENS. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE 60S. IT  
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY  
WARMING INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S, EXCEPT MID-UPPER 70S SOUTH OF THE I-  
16 CORRIDOR. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR NEAR  
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BY  
THE INLAND WEDGE TIGHTENS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE WITH POSSIBLE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  
THIS WEEKEND WITHIN THE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. THERE IS A LARGE  
NUMBER OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING LOW  
PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE COAST, BUT THE STRENGTH AND TRACK IS STILL  
IN QUESTION. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND  
LOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE INLAND WEDGE TO SOME DEGREE HEADING INTO  
MONDAY EVEN AS THE PARENT HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WEAKENS AND SHIFTS  
EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SOME RAIN CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED  
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPING LOW OFFSHORE WITH MOSTLY RAIN-  
FREE CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  
LOWS COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS PARTS OF THE FAR  
INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL  
LIKELY OCCUR NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES INTO SATURDAY DUE  
TO THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE INLAND WEDGE AND  
DEVELOPING LOW OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.  
 
LAKE WINDS: WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BECOME ELEVATED LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG, PINCHED GRADIENT DEVELOPS  
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INLAND WEDGE. WINDS COULD GET  
CLOSE TO OR EVEN EXCEED LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 20 KT  
OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT) DURING THIS TIME AND AN ADVISORY MAY  
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WAVES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 2-3 FT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
00Z TAFS: VCSH SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KCHS AND KJZI BY 03Z. SOME  
OF THE MOS AND ENSEMBLES HINT AT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE  
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH  
TO ADD THIS AS A TEMPO OR PREVAILING GROUP AT ANY OF THE TAF  
SITES. BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE  
AMENDMENTS. OTHERWISE, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF TIME  
PERIOD.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT  
THE TERMINALS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY  
AS STRONG WEDGE DEVELOPS INLAND AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE.  
THERE ARE NO OTHER HIGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE COASTAL  
WATERS WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES OUTSIDE OF  
CHARLESTON HARBOR, BUT SEAS ARE BORDERLINE FOR THE NEARSHORE  
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE  
DROPPED FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL  
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE  
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5 BY  
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING  
WITH 20 NM AND OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. BY WEDNESDAY, SEAS WILL  
SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THROUGHOUT.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A SIGNIFICANT MARINE EVENT WILL UNFOLD  
LATER IN THE WEAK AS A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE  
WAKE OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO  
CLEAR THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STIFF NORTHEAST  
WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS. THE RESULTING  
PINCHED GRADIENT WILL YIELD WINDS 25-30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 35-40  
KT FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS BACKING MORE NORTHERLY  
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WINDS IN THE  
CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL BE A BIT LESS. GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY  
BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEK WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE  
CHARLESTON HARBOR.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG  
THE GEORGIA BEACHES TUESDAY. A BLEND OF LATEST RIP CURRENT MOS  
WITH LOCAL RIP CURRENT CALCULATIONS SUPPORT THIS. A MODERATE  
RISK WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL BEACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. AN ENHANCED  
RISK WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO BUILDING SURF AND  
INCREASING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND WEDGE.  
 
THE RISK FOR HIGH SURF WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO POSSIBLY AS  
FAR OUT AS SATURDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME  
BEACHES.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
THIS EVENING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT CHARLESTON  
HARBOR WITH NO COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED AT FORT PULASKI.  
 
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE  
UPCOMING FULL MOON (OCT 7) AND PERIGEE (OCT 8). ADDITIONALLY, TIDAL  
DEPARTURE VALUES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE  
INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG NE WINDS  
RETURN. AS A RESULT, THE THREAT FOR MAINLY MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL  
FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLES CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK.  
THEN, LATE WEEK, THE THREAT FOR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ARRIVES WITH  
THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDES.  
 
 
   
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-  
139-141.  
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
SCZ048>051.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ049-  
050.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ354.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.  
 
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...HAINES  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...HAINES  
MARINE...HAINES  
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