447
FXUS62 KCHS 242302
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
702 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NEAR THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
THIS AFTERNOON: ALOFT, A BROAD MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WHILE
SUBTLE RIDGING OCCURS NEAR THE GULF COAST. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, FAVORING DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
TONIGHT: LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS THE
AXIS OF THE MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES NOTICEABLY MORE ENHANCED LATER TONIGHT.
STILL, ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. IN GENERAL, OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S INLAND AND ACROSS THE
FRANCIS MARION FOREST TO MID-UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST (WARMEST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SFC WIND IS MORE ONSHORE).
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXPECT COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CONCERN ON
SATURDAY REMAINS TO BE FIRE WEATHER AS RH VALUES APPROACH 25% ACROSS
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. SHIFTING INTO SUNDAY, UPPER-LVL RIDGING
SPREADS OUT ZONALLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACH SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN AND EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO TAKE CONTROL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START
INCREASING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION AND ANOTHER LOW
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
MONDAY: DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF WHERE THE LOW EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS CHANCE THAT THE LOW COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE ON MONDAY
MORNING, AND PRODUCE 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO, POTENTIALLY THIS SCENARIO COULD
ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH THE PROB. FOR >2
INCHES IN 24 HOURS AROUND 10-20% (MAINLY ALONG THE COASTLINE).
ALTERNATIVELY, THERE IS ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW FORMS
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND THIS WOULD ALLOW MOST OF THE
RAINFALL TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER, WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING NEAR, OR BELOW, 0.5 INCHES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS LOTS OF CERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE, FORECAST DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN THE OVERALL
MODEL SPREAD AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER, GENERAL THINKING IS THAT THE
LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. ALSO, IT'S POSSIBLE TO SEE A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND YIELD DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOW
TO MID 60S WITH SOME SPOTS IN SE GEORGIA REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, INCREASING IN SPEED AND
GUSTINESS AFTER SUNRISE. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 15 KNOTS
FOR THE INLAND AREAS, WHILE AREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE CLOSER TO
20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN,
LATER SUNDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST, AND SUB-VFR PROBS INCREASE WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC, LEADING TO RATHER QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD NOTABLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT, LEADING TO AN UPTICK
IN WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT. IN GENERAL, NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT, WIND
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT
TODAY, THEN SLOWLY BUILD TO 3-4 FT OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS UP THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AS WELL. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-26 KT, THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND AS WINDS
AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
IT'S POSSIBLE TO SEE GALES STARTING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
NEARSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND STARTING ON TUESDAY EVENING FOR
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONIDITONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED ON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES, AND THEN POSSIBLY AT ALL
BEACHES ON THURSDAY WITH WAVES REACHING NEAR AND ABOVE 8 FT.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
GEORGIA BEACHES SATURDAY. ALSO, THERE WILL IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE GEORGIA BEACHES ON SUNDAY. IT'S LIKELY THERE WILL BE AN
ENHANCED RISK ON MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK DUE A COMBINATION OF
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY: DEEP MIXING WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-25%
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA UP INTO ALLENDALE COUNTY,
SC, WITH 25-35% ELSEWHERE. FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY AND ARE NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, WINDS WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE AND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
SATURDAY: WITH RH VALUES RANGING FROM 20-30% ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA UP INTO ALLENDALE COUNTY, SC AND
DRYING FUELS NEAR CRITICAL LEVEL, THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
FIRE-SENSITIVE DAY ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR, TO THE PAST DEW DAYS,
WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...APT/DENNIS
MARINE...DENNIS/DPB
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