944
FXUS62 KCHS 251122
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND COMPLEX SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
COULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AT H5, ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS A CLOSED LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SFC,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD YIELD ENE WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF
THE ARRIVING HIGH CLOUDS AND ENE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND THE MID 70S
ACROSS SE GA. MIXING BETWEEN 3.5-4 KFT SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND, VALUES ALONG THE COAST SHOULD RANGE
THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TONIGHT, H5 HEIGHTS WILL TILT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE
CWA, SUPPORTING STEADY NE WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
BACKGROUND WESTERLY FLOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST MONDAY.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY, RIDING A STALLED FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY RESTRENGTHENING OFF THE
COAST LATER MONDAY.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER VERY
SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT COOLER SURFACE RIDGING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A FEW AREAS OF SPOTTY SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, THOUGH MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY SUNDAY
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.
THE COLUMN MOISTENS AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF BROAD UPPER SUPPORT AND PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE NOW PRESENT THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WILL RESULTING IN
A TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1-1.5 FOR MOST. GREATER AMOUNT
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES
NEARBY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR >3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE 24 HR
PERIOD ENDING LATE MONDAY NIGHT LINGERING IN THE 10-20% RANGE.
CHILLY NE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A DREARY DAY TUESDAY WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS, THOUGH UPPER SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DECREASED RAIN
CHANGES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. A UPPER
CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
MIDWEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW THAT WILL
TRANSLATE AT THE SURFACE. A STRONG FRONT, POSSIBLY WITH A WAVE
EMBEDDED, IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FRONT WILL DEPEND ON SEVERAL THINGS, INCLUDING HOW FAR OFF
THE COASTAL MELISSA IS BY THIS POINT (WEST OF BERMUDA = POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT), BUT A GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SEEMS A REASONABLE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
BY FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS COULD BOTH FEATURE LOWS AS COLD AS THE UPPER
30S INLAND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST STILL LOOKING VERY LOW
(<20%) AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR. RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPORT ENE WINDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY, GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS. KJZI MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS MAY TURN FROM THE NE WITH
SPEEDS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 KTS. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION
SUNDAY LIKELY BRINGS SUB-VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS WE MOVE
INTO MID-WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL AND PROLONGED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
SUB-VFR CEILINGS REMAINING POSSIBLE.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN RIDGING HIGH
PRESSURE, AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS, WITH A INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT NORTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH GUST TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WITHIN 60 NM. AS A RESULT, SEAS WILL BEGIN THE DAY BETWEEN 3-4 FT,
BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. SEAS OF 6 FT SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVER THE GA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE NEARSHORE
AND OUTER WATERS ALONG THE SC AND GA COAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK: BREEZY NE WINDS CONTINUE
SUNDAY. GALES CHANCES ARE UP TO ~ 30-40% MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
COULD DEVELOP OFF THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING INLAND.
BREEZY NE WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH POWERFUL SWELL FROM TC MELISSA
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS WELL.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
GEORGIA BEACHES TODAY. ALSO, THERE WILL IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE GEORGIA BEACHES ON SUNDAY. IT'S LIKELY THERE WILL BE AN
ENHANCED RISK ON MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK DUE A COMBINATION OF
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY: WITH RH VALUES RANGING FROM 20-30% ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA UP INTO ALLENDALE COUNTY, SC AND DRYING FUELS
NEAR CRITICAL LEVEL, THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER FIRE-SENSITIVE
DAY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR, TO THE PAST DEW DAYS, WINDS WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE AND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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