106
FXUS62 KCHS 251846
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
246 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND COMPLEX SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
COULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
THIS AFTERNOON: ALOFT, A BROAD TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES WHILE A CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION, REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A RESULT, ALTHOUGH A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS COULD DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. LOW-LVL MIXING ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
DEWPTS LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND WHILE VALUES ALONG THE
COAST REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN
THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA (WARMEST INLAND).
TONIGHT: H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
A CLOSED MID-LVL LOW APPROACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER ENHANCED
LOCALLY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE, LEADING TO NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS IN THE
5-10 MPH RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, THICKER MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS
ARRIVING AND THE STEADY NORTHEAST WIND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. IN GENERAL,
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S INLAND TO UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST (WARMEST ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE
THE FLOW IS MORE ONSHORE).
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUNDAY: AS THIS CLOSED UPPER-LVL LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TRAVELS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION, IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME
ABSORBED INTO THE BACKGROUND WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM, MOISTURE WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION AS THIS
LOW TRAVELS ALONGSIDE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
ALSO FILL INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING, ALONG WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON AS AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONT
TRIES LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. IT'S
UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MID-LVLS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. HEADING INTO SUNDAY EVENING,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ALONG THE COASTLINE AS THIS AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS TO RE-
STRENGTHEN OFF OF THE COASTLINE. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING. FORECAST NOTES HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
INLAND COUNTIES WITH LOW 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: AT THE SURFACE, THIS AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE AND THEN RE-STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE
THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LOW, HOWEVER THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PREDICTED TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, WITH THE PROB. FOR >2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS AROUND 30-40%.
THIS PROB. COULD INCREASE IF THE FUTURE MODEL CONSENSUS POSITIONS
THE LOW DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAINFALL, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED AS THE REGION REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THIS OFFSHORE DEVELOPING LOW.
LUCKILY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO 20-30% ON TUESDAY
AS THIS LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL YET AGAIN TREND ON THE COOLER SIDE AS HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON MONDAY, AND LOW TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS
THIS UPPER-LVL CUT-OFF LOW EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK. A STRONG, COLD FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT A COOL, DRY
AIRMASS TO BUILD IN FROM BEHIND AS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
CONTROL. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 60S WITH SOME
SPOTS IN SE GEORGIA REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE (<20%) OF FROST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 15 KT AT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH 22-23Z THIS AFTERNOON, THEN GUST TO 15-20 KT
AT ALL TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 1430Z SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION
SUNDAY LIKELY BRINGS SUB-VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS WE MOVE
INTO MID-WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL AND PROLONGED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
SUB-VFR CEILINGS REMAINING POSSIBLE.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE GULF STREAM WILL
PLACE A RATHER ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH A 1000 MB
GEOSTROPHIC WIND AROUND 30 KT ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND NIGHT. THE PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT FOR LOCAL WATERS OUTSIDE THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD FROM 3-5 FT TO 4-6 FT LATE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THIS LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20
TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FT AS A POWERFUL SWELL FROM TC MELISSA BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
GEORGIA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, THERE WILL IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE GEORGIA BEACHES ON SUNDAY. IT'S LIKELY THERE WILL
BE AN ENHANCED RISK ON MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK DUE A COMBINATION OF
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON: ANOTHER FIRE-SENSITIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH RH
VALUES RANGING FROM 25-30% ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NORTH INTO ALLENDALE COUNTY, SC AND DRY FUELS NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS.
SIMILAR, TO THE PAST DEW DAYS, WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...DENNIS/DPB
MARINE...DENNIS/DPB
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