246
FXUS62 KCHS 261116
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
716 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND COMPLEX SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
COULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
ALONG THE GULF SHORE OF THE FL PANHANDLE. PW WILL BEGIN THE DAY
AROUND 1 INCH, INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS SE GA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING, CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY THICKEN AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS AFTERNOON, FORCING SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS THE H5 CLOSED LOW SWINGS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER EXTREME SE
GA. GIVEN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND THICK CLOUD COVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN LIMITED TO THE 60S INLAND TO THE LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND SE GA.
TONIGHT, DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, EXCEEDING 1.8 INCHES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY OVER PORTIONS OF SE
GA. H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS TIMED TO APPROACH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY: APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE
COAST THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY, WITH THE PATTERN REMAINING
PROGRESSIVE AND THE LOW SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATER IN THE DAY. STILL, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH COVERAGE
DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREDICTED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL -TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3 INCHES - SHOULD
REMAIN IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BEACHES OR OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAINFALL, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY ON
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST, PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO
TUESDAY, BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN STRENGTHENING
UPPER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR.
BY LATER WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
WITH A CUTOFF LOW ALOFT LIFTING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE PARENT LOW FILLS, A NEW WAVE DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BECOME DOMINATE, LIFTING ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND HELPING USHER THE STRONG FRONT ACROSS
OUT AREA LATER WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN, WITH THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION
BEING A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS POINT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT, THROUGH THE LATER
PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SATURDAY MORNING HAS TRENDED A BIT COOLER, WITH
VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BRINGING TEMPS INTO
THE UPPER 30S FOR INLAND AREAS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD
FOR THE POTENTIAL FIRST FROST HAZARDS OF THE SEASON.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
12Z TAFS: THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KTS AT KJZI DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LIGHT RAINFALL
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING. KSAV AND KJZI WILL FEATURE VCSH BY 3Z. OVERNIGHT, DEEP
FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY LATE
NIGHT. RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF MVFR VIS WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL APPEARS POSSIBLE AT KSAV AND KJZI BY 9Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INTO LATER MONDAY.
VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ALONG THE GULF SHORE OF THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NE WINDS, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 25
KTS. AFTERNOON MIXING MAY AID IN GUSTS ACROSS THE CHS HARBOR TO
REACH 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE HARBOR
WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ALL MARINE ZONES IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD,
RANGING BETWEEN 6 TO 9 FT BY LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO APPROACH GALE STRENGTH,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SC COAST, MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INLAND. THIS, IN COMBINATION
WITH A COMPLEX MIX OF NORTHEAST WINDSWELL AND DEVELOPING LONGER
PERIODS SWELL FROM TC MELISSA PASSING WELL OFF THE COAST MID-TO-LATE
WEEK, WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY
AS BREEZY NE WINDS BRING BUILDING SWELL. IT'S LIKELY THERE WILL BE
AN ENHANCED RISK ON MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK DUE A COMBINATION OF
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.
CLIMATE
RECORD PRECIPITATION:
OCTOBER 27:
KCXM: 1.49/1985
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-
141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ354.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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