327
FXUS62 KCHS 261835
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
235 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING IMPACTS TO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THIS AFTERNOON: ALOFT, THE PATTERN FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAT
IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WHICH PLACES H5
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE
LATER PART OF DAY. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO
THE NORTH AND ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WHILE LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND A COASTAL TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY, BUT
INCREASINGLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS
WHERE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS IN THIS NOTED AREA,
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO PEAK IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, THE
POTENTIAL FOR FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASES LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING AS THE FLOW ABOVE THE SFC ADVECTS GREATER MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. HERE PWATS APPROACH 1.5 INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY,
AND WITH AMPLE SUN LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S (WARMEST NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER) AS WELL AS H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST, SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD SUPPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1/4
INCH, MAINLY SOUTH OF SAVANNAH, GA ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE
COASTAL TROUGH AXIS.
TONIGHT: DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WITHIN A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SFC IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW WELL TO THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWER
COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT WHILE H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
REGION, SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING, THEN
ENTERING SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. PRECIP
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS GEORGIA ZONES,
WHERE A SWATH OF PWATS APPROACHES 1.8 INCHES AND NOTABLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS NORTH OF A FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE
NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY
NUDGING ACROSS GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES LATE, SUPPORTING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. GIVEN THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY COASTAL
TROUGH, SOME SPOTS COULD EXPERIENCE AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE GEORGIA COASTLINE PRIOR TO SUNRISE (LARGEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM). WPC
HAS EVEN HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
ARRIVING MID-UPPER LVL LOW, WITH LOW TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE
LOWER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MONDAY: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST DURING THE DAY, THEN MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVERNIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, A STORM SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BE LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. BY LATE IN THE DAY, THEN MOVE AWAY OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
DECENT MOISTURE USHERED INTO OUR AREA WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.75"
BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE NBM HAS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY, THEN TRENDING LOWER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LARGE RANGE IN QPF ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ~0.5-0.75" FAR INLAND. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5-2.0" NEAR OUR BEACHES, WITH UP TO 3"
POSSIBLE NEAR OUR GA BEACHES. THE RAINFALL AND NE SURFACE WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
FAR INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S AT OUR SC BEACHES, AND THE LOWER 70S AT
OUR GA BEACHES. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY: WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN THE
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN, LARGE SCALE TROUGHING
WILL APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY IN
THE MORNING AND MOVING AWAY. THOUGH, FRONTS WILL BE DRAPED TO OUR
SOUTH AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE
WILL BE LOWER WITH PWATS AROUND OR BELOW 1". BUT THE NBM STILL HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.1" DURING THE DAY. N TO NE
SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S, WHILE
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR INLAND TO THE MID 50S AT AND
NEAR THE BEACHES.
WEDNESDAY: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE EAST. AT THE
SURFACE, A STORM SYSTEM AND IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THE NBM HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT FAR INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS FROM 18-21Z
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, BEFORE PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE WITH SHOWERS AND
LOW CLOUDS BY AROUND 08Z MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE COULD ALSO
BE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MONDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES
LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS UP
TO 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY, BEFORE TURNING MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY VFR ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A COASTAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS, INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT (HIGHEST OUTSIDE THE HARBOR) AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVERNIGHT (LARGEST ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
AND BEYOND 15 NM FROM THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.) LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES SUGGEST SOME RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
WITH GUSTY WINDS.
EXTENDED MARINE: A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING IMPACTS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WHY THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS MOST OF THIS WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, TC MELISSA PASSING WELL OFFSHORE LATER THIS WEEK WILL
BRING SWELL TO OUR AREA.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL OF OUR
BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
CHARLESTON TIDE GAUGE: THERE IS THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITH THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD PRECIPITATION:
OCTOBER 27:
KCXM: 1.49/1985
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-
139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ354.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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