219
FXUS62 KCHS 262334
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
734 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING IMPACTS TO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
THIS EVENING: ALOFT, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND
ATTENDING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT WILL START TO TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. AT THE SURFACE, COLD AIR DAMMING WILL REMAIN WELL
ENTRENCHED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST AND A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH ACROSS AN AREA NEAR THE
FL PANHANDLE, NORTH FL, AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING INTO THE
1.5-1.75" RANGE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE BEST FORCING APPEARS AS
THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN DISPLACED JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, PROGGED TO COINCIDE BETTER WITH THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
AN AREA OF ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAINFALL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
GA COASTAL WATERS AND INTO MCINTOSH COUNTY AND THIS SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ALONG THE GA COAST AND A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT. THERE ARE EVEN SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL START TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND WE COULD SEE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH, THERE COULD BE AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN DOWN
ALONG THE GA COAST CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA WHERE IT IS ALREADY
RAINING. AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA COULD REACH AN INCH OR MORE, WITH
THE HREF ADVERTISING 3 HOUR RAINFALL PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH OR
GREATER AROUND 70 PERCENT. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY NIGHT,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST
AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MONDAY: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY, THEN MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A STORM SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BE
LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATE IN THE DAY, THEN MOVE AWAY
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT MOISTURE USHERED INTO OUR AREA
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.75" BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE NBM HAS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY, THEN
TRENDING LOWER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
LARGE RANGE IN QPF ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM ~0.5-0.75" FAR INLAND. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 1.5-2.0" NEAR OUR BEACHES, WITH UP TO 3" POSSIBLE NEAR OUR
GA BEACHES. THE RAINFALL AND NE SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR
INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S AT OUR SC BEACHES, AND THE LOWER 70S AT
OUR GA BEACHES. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY: WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN
THE MORNING WILL DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN, LARGE SCALE
TROUGHING WILL APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE MORNING AND MOVING AWAY. THOUGH, FRONTS
WILL BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LOWER WITH PWATS
AROUND OR BELOW 1". BUT THE NBM STILL HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. QPF
SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.1" DURING THE DAY. N TO NE SURFACE WINDS
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S, WHILE LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR INLAND TO THE MID 50S AT AND
NEAR THE BEACHES.
WEDNESDAY: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE
EAST. AT THE SURFACE, A STORM SYSTEM AND IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO
OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE NBM HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE MORNING INCREASING TO CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT FAR INLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SOLID BLANKET OF MVFR CEILINGS
IN PLACE AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV. CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITH IFR CEILINGS, STEADY
RAINFALL, AND CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW. RAINFALL WILL
EXPAND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, IMPACTING KSAV FIRST BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS AND REACHING KCHS AND KJZI BY MIDDAY OR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE AS WELL, WITH
IFR TIMED INTO KSAV BY 14Z, AND KCHS AND KJZI BY AROUND 16Z.
ONCE IFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE, THEY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: AT LEAST PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY VFR ON
THURSDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS, INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT (HIGHEST OUTSIDE THE HARBOR) AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVERNIGHT (LARGEST ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS AND BEYOND 15 NM FROM THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.)
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
GEORGIA WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.
EXTENDED MARINE: A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING IMPACTS TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WHY
THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL
WATERS MOST OF THIS WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, TC MELISSA PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE LATER THIS WEEK WILL BRING SWELL TO OUR AREA.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL OF
OUR BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
CHARLESTON TIDE GAUGE: THERE IS THE RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITH THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD PRECIPITATION:
OCTOBER 27:
KCXM: 1.49/1985
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-
139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ354.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...
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