866
FXUS62 KCHS 280457
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1257 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PREVAIL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
THIS EVENING: SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A COASTAL
FRONT WITH WELL ENTRENCHED COLD-AIR DAMMING INLAND. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS LAND AREAS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME IS QUICKLY ADVANCING EASTWARD TO THE
COAST. THE THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS VERY
LOW, AND WE SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO JUST SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHES OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S AND ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY: WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN
THE MORNING WILL DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN, LARGE SCALE
TROUGHING WILL APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVING AWAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION
LATER IN THE DAY AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE WILL
TREND LOWER AS TIME PROGRESSES, WITH PWATS BELOW 1" LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. QPF SHOULD BE 0.5" OR LESS DURING THE DAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AND
THE LOWEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. N TO NE SURFACE
WINDS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO 60S, WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR INLAND TO
THE MID 50S AT AND NEAR THE BEACHES.
WEDNESDAY: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN THE MORNING. IT'LL MOVE TO
THE EAST, GENERALLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A STORM SYSTEM AND
IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN ZOOM OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE NBM HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE
DAY, INCREASING TO CHANCE IN THE EVENING. THEY WILL TREND LOWER
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. N TO NE SURFACE WINDS IN
THE MORNING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
60S TO MAYBE LOWER 70S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S FAR INLAND TO THE MID 50S AT AND NEAR THE
BEACHES.
THURSDAY: THE LONGWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST
COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING AND
QUICKLY MOVING AWAY, WHILE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WITH ITS PERIPHERY STRETCHING INTO OUR REGION. THE HIGH
WILL BRING OUR AREA DRY CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES. WINDS COULD BE BREEZY FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS FORECASTED TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD AND
FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT FAR INLAND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 6Z TAFS, IR SATELLITE AND SFC BASED OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MOS INDICATES THAT AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ROUNDS OF
DRIZZLE MAY DRIFT ACROSS KCHS AND KJZI THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY
REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE CAD SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD GUSTY
NORTH WINDS, GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS COMMON DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: LOW CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT COULD BRING
SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: BREEZY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS. AS THE COASTAL LOW FORMS AND
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WATERS, EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS WITH RISING WINDSWELL. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PERSISTS OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 6
TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN INCREASE TO 6 TO 10 FT IN THE
NEARSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS, WHILE DECREASING 5 TO 7 FT IN THE
NEARSHORE AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PREVAIL
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND
PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, TC MELISSA WILL BE
PASSING WELL OFFSHORE LATER THIS WEEK. THIS COMPLEX SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL BRING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WHICH IS WHY THERE ARE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
THEY WILL EXPIRE AT VARIOUS DAYS/TIMES THIS WEEK. SEE THE MWW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NE WINDS AND ELEVATED
SWELL WILL BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO ALL OF OUR
BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY AND A MODERATE RISK ON WEDNESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
CHARLESTON TIDE GAGE: DUE TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THERE IS A LOW END RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE
CURRENT FORECAST FEATURES A FORECAST OF 6.8 FT MLLW FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH 6.9 FT MLLW ON WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-
141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...DENNIS
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