901
FXUS62 KCHS 281055
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
655 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND PERSISTS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A FIELD OF H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH. THIS PASSAGE OF
THE FORCING SHOULD PRODUCE ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY.
AT THE SFC, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE
LOW SHOULD REINFORCE A SFC RIDGE OR COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE CWA,
WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS, THICK LLVL CLOUDS,
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TODAY.
TONIGHT: THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. BY LATE TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH AL WITH A WEAK WAVY WARM FRONT EAST ACROSS GA. SFC
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT, WITH SPEEDS REACHING
AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEDNESDAY: THE DAY WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE, WITH A WEDGE PATTERN IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
OVER ARKLATEX WILL PROGRESS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO APPROACH THE REGION, CAUSING THE WEDGE PATTERN TO
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70, AS THE WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
OWING TO THE FROPA OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S
INLAND AND LOW 50S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY, WITH THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER
FROPA, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
WEST, YIELDING A DRY FORECAST BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
INTO THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
SIMILARLY BE BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S INLAND WITH
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND, WHILE
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY
NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S INLAND AND MID 40S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES (AROUND 50
AT THE BEACHES). FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT FAR INLAND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING THE REGION THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 12Z TAFS, IR SATELLITE AND SFC BASED OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MOS INDICATES THAT AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ROUNDS OF
DRIZZLE MAY DRIFT ACROSS KCHS AND KJZI THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY
REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE CAD SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD GUSTY
NORTH WINDS, GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS COMMON DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. LATE TONIGHT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT A THIN
STRATUS LAYER MAY LOWER TO LIFR, ESPECIALLY NEAR KSAV.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS. VFR WILL RETURN LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: AT THE SFC, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW SHOULD REINFORCE A SFC RIDGE OR
COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE CWA, WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE SFC PATTERN SHOULD YIELD GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. TONIGHT, THE SFC
RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. BY LATE TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH AL WITH
A WEAK WAVY WARM FRONT EAST ACROSS GA. NORTH WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY
SUBSIDE, RANGING BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT. SEAS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FT, DECREASING BY A FOOT
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SCA) OUTSIDE THE CHS HARBOR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT, THE
NEARSHORE GA AND LOWER SC WATERS COULD BE REMOVED FROM THE SCAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
INTO WEDNESDAY, YIELDING NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS, WITH NW GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS IN THE FORECAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH 5-6 FT BY THURSDAY
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-8 FT IN THE 20-60 NM OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SWELL AND STRONG NE WINDS
WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY AND
A MODERATE RISK ON WEDNESDAY. AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
CHARLESTON TIDE GAGE: DUE TO INCREASING NE FLOW THERE IS A LOW END
RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDES BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST FEATURES
6.8 FT MLLW FOR TODAY'S HIGH TIDE AND 6.9 FT MLLW ON WEDNESDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-
141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...CPM/NED
MARINE...CPM/NED
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