828
FXUS62 KCHS 281758
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
158 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. SIMULTANEOUSLY,
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD)
THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND ALLOW COOL, CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S AS OVERCAST MAINTAINS OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE SUPPORT BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN,
OR DRIZZLE. THERE WILL NOT BE MENTIONABLE RAINFALL WITH THIS
FORECAST AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE ACROSS
THE CWA AND ALLOWS FOR DRIER AIR TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. PWATS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TONIGHT, THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST,
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE DEEP SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS GEORGIA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A POWERFUL CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
MS/AL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND A THIN BAND OF FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD YIELD A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND, WHILE
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY
NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S INLAND AND MID 40S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES (AROUND 50
AT THE BEACHES). FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT FAR INLAND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD IMPACT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
18Z TAFS: LOW-LVL MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE ACROSS
THE REGION AND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION. FOR KSAV, EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
BY 03Z AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A THIN CEILING
STRATUS SHIFTS ACROSS THE SE GEORGIA. A TEMPO WITH THE MENTION OF BR
WAS NOTED FROM 18Z TO 21Z AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. ALSO, A MENTION OF BR
WAS ADDED TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR KCHS/KJZI. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS, THEN EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
VFR THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS. AS THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA, NORTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS,
BEFORE INCREASING A BIT TO 6 TO 9 FT OVERNIGHT. AS FOR OTHER MARINE
ZONES (AMZ352, AMZ354, AMZ374), EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT
(WITH SOME 7 FOOTERS REACHING INTO AMZ374). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BEAUFORT
COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS, THEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE AND GA OFFSHORE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SWELL AND STRONG NE WINDS
WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY AND
A MODERATE RISK ON WEDNESDAY. AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
CHARLESTON TIDE GAGE: DUE TO INCREASING NE FLOW THERE IS A LOW END
RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST FEATURES 6.9 FT MLLW FOR
TOMORROW'S (WEDNESDAY) HIGH TIDE, POTENTIALLY NEARING 7.0 FT
MLLW. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ354.
NEAR TERM...DENNIS
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...DENNIS/JRL
MARINE...DENNIS/JRL
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