726
FXUS62 KCHS 282340
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
740 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
THIS EVENING: SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD-AIR DAMMING
ENTRENCHED INLAND SOURCED FROM EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WITH A LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
OVERNIGHT, THE COLD- AIR DAMMING SCENARIO WILL PERSIST WHILE
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE EXTENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
OFFSHORE FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED UNDER A
BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT, RESULTING IN ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS,
REVEALING A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. WE HAVE SEEN
PERSISTENT VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE WITH
CURRENT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
A POWERFUL CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
MS/AL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND A THIN BAND OF FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD YIELD A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND,
WHILE ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND MID 40S ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES (AROUND 50 AT THE BEACHES). FROST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FAR INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COULD IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR STRATUS
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV THROUGH MOST OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT CEILINGS WILL LOWER SOLIDLY INTO THE IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE DRIZZLE COULD
DROP VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED FIRST AT KSAV (BY AROUND 14Z), FOLLOWED BY
KCHS AND KJZI BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. KSAV HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO RETURN TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH KCHS AND KJZI
LIKELY REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AND CERTAINLY NOT AS
BREEZY AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. VFR THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS. AS THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA,
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
CHARLESTON WATERS, BEFORE INCREASING A BIT TO 6 TO 9 FT
OVERNIGHT. AS FOR OTHER MARINE ZONES (AMZ352, AMZ354, AMZ374),
EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT (WITH SOME 7 FOOTERS
REACHING INTO AMZ374). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BEAUFORT
COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS, THEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE AND GA OFFSHORE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NE WINDS WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY. AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ354.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...DENNIS/JRL
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