761
FXUS62 KCHS 290455
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
THIS EVENING: SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD-AIR DAMMING
ENTRENCHED INLAND SOURCED FROM EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WITH A LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
OVERNIGHT, THE COLD- AIR DAMMING SCENARIO WILL PERSIST WHILE
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE EXTENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
OFFSHORE FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED UNDER A
BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT, RESULTING IN ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS,
REVEALING A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. WE HAVE SEEN
PERSISTENT VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE WITH
CURRENT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
A POWERFUL CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
MS/AL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND A THIN BAND OF FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD YIELD A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE INTO THE WEEKEND,
WHILE ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND MID 40S ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES (AROUND 50 AT THE BEACHES). FROST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FAR INLAND ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COULD IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 6Z TAFS, IR SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY WITH
DRIZZLE AND MIST. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND MOS, IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AT KCHS
AND KJZI, ENDING AT KSAV BY MID-MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD SEE SOME RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT KCHS AND KJZI, VFR AT KSAV. THE COLD
FRONT IS TIMED TO REACH KSAV THIS EVENING, WINDS VEERING FROM
THE WEST BY 4Z. ALSO, A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. VFR THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS. AS THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA,
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
CHARLESTON WATERS, BEFORE INCREASING A BIT TO 6 TO 9 FT
OVERNIGHT. AS FOR OTHER MARINE ZONES (AMZ352, AMZ354, AMZ374),
EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT (WITH SOME 7 FOOTERS
REACHING INTO AMZ374). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BEAUFORT
COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS, THEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE AND GA OFFSHORE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SWELL AND PERSISTENT
NE WINDS WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY. AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ354.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...DENNIS/JRL
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