903
FXUS62 KCHS 290626
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
226 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CAD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 21Z. WIND
SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE NNE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING FROM THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY STEADY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY WARMING
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. A THIN LINE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-95, WITH LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, H85 CAA
MAY DROP TEMPERATURES FROM 10-12C DURING THE EVENING ACROSS SE GA TO
3-4C BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS SE GA TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ALOFT THE MID LEVELS
WILL CONSIST OF BROAD TROUGHING TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THIS PATTERN
WILL YIELD RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS, WITH THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT
BEING THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EACH DAY IS FORECAST TO ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, ROUGHLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLDEST TIME FRAME OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT, WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S FAR INLAND, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT FAR INLAND, AND A FROST ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR INLAND COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO TROUGHING AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN
THE NORTHERN GULF. DESPITE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 6Z TAFS, IR SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY WITH
DRIZZLE AND MIST. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND MOS, IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AT KCHS
AND KJZI, ENDING AT KSAV BY MID-MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD SEE SOME RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT KCHS AND KJZI, VFR AT KSAV. THE COLD
FRONT IS TIMED TO REACH KSAV THIS EVENING, WINDS VEERING FROM
THE WEST BY 4Z. ALSO, A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD NORTHEAST
WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15 KTS TODAY, SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY, REMAINING
BETWEEN 5-6 FT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE AND OUTER GA
WATERS TODAY, HIGHLIGHTED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES BY LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE WEST WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE LOW 20S. SEAS MAY INCREASE BY ONE
FOOT OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
EXPAND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF GA AND LOWER SC.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELEVATED SEAS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
MELISSA WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE GA WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS: A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SWELL AND STRONG NE WINDS
WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY. AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO LATE-WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...CPM/NED
MARINE...CPM/NED
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