195
FXUS62 KCHS 291820
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
220 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CAD PREVAILS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK, SO IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN HOW EFFECTIVE IT WILL BE AT MIXING OUT THE CAD, BUT SOME
MODERATION OF TEMPS, AND POSSIBLE SOME CLEARING, ARE POSSIBLY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SE GA.
THEN, LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE LIFTING FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, BUT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST VERY
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON, ARRIVING ON OUR DOORSTEP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND ABSENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT MORE THAN A FEW
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF WILL FALL FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, H85 CAA MAY DROP TEMPERATURES FROM 10-12C
DURING THE EVENING ACROSS SE GA TO 3-4C BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS SE GA TO
AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DECREASING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE AREA. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND FROM THE COAST WHILE SATURDAY
MORNING COULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT WE WILL STAY OUT OF FROST ADVISORY TERRITORY SATURDAY
MORNING SINCE TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY NEED TO BE LOWER THAN 36
DEGREES FOR APPRECIABLE FROST FORMATION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A DEEPENING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO LOUISIANA LATE
SUNDAY, THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW COULD MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA,
BRINGING THE NEXT APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CAD-INDUCED IFR TO LOW END MVFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN, THIS EVENING, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EROSION OF
THE CAD, AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS, OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE FRONT IS WEAK, AND GUIDANCE TENDS TO
ERODE THE CAD TOO QUICKLY, SO HAVE CONTINUED VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
WELL INTO THE EVENING.
THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT, WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT SAV SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT,
THEN AT CHS AND JZI WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT, WITH VFR
PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
AFFECTS THE AREA.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KTS PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INLAND. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WATERS MID-EVENING, WITH BREEZY S WINDS
DEVELOPING BRIEFLY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE
WATERS, WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO W WINDS AND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS
ARRIVING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY.
SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 5-6 FT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE
AND OUTER GA WATERS TODAY, WITH SCAS REMAINING IN EFFECT. THE
STRONGER WINDS ARRIVING WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A MODEST
INCREASE IN SEAS, WHICH WILL REACH 5-8 FT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
25-30 KT WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS, AFTER WHICH ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL DROP
OFF.
RIP CURRENTS: MODEST SWELL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY,
MAINTAINING A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...CEB/JRL
MARINE...CEB/JRL
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