570
FXUS62 KCHS 300035
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
835 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
TONIGHT: THE CAD WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE EARLY, DESPITE A WEAK WARM
FRONT ATTEMPTING TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS PART OF THE AREA. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
WITH RADAR RETURNS OCCURRING WEST OF I-95, BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH PERHAPS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. UNTIL THEN,
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE OVER MOST LOCATIONS, THE EXCEPTION
BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA (SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT).
THE COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DEPICTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA, WILL RACE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH A SWATH/LINE OF SHOWERS, BUT GIVEN THE RAPID
MOVEMENT AND ABSENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE, RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS
UNLIKELY TO BE MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING
COLD FROPA WITH SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR CLEARING OUT SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW-LVL MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FROPA, SO
A 10-15 MPH WIND FROM THE WEST WILL BE COMMON INTO DAYBREAK. GUSTS
TO TOP OUT NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE AND ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND TO
UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
DECREASING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE AREA. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND FROM THE COAST WHILE SATURDAY
MORNING COULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT WE WILL STAY OUT OF FROST ADVISORY TERRITORY SATURDAY
MORNING SINCE TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY NEED TO BE LOWER THAN 36
DEGREES FOR APPRECIABLE FROST FORMATION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A DEEPENING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO LOUISIANA LATE
SUNDAY, THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW COULD MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA,
BRINGING THE NEXT APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PERIODS OF MVFR AND/OR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00-
07Z THURSDAY AT CHS/JZI TERMINALS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WELL. AT
SAV, PERIODS OR TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00-05Z THURSDAY
PRIOR TO COLD FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS ONCE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT (STARTING 05Z-07Z
TONIGHT), THEN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. EXPECT AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT ONCE FROPA OCCURS, WITH WEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KT
GUSTING UP TO 20 KT FOR A FEW HOURS POST FROPA, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS APPROACHING DAYBREAK, BEFORE GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS
RETURN (WEST WINDS 20-25 KT) AT ALL TAF SITES STARTING AROUND 14Z
THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, THROUGH
AT LEAST 22-23Z THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
AFFECTS THE AREA.
MARINE
TONIGHT: EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS LOCAL WATERS
AS A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS INLAND. AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS IS ANTICIPATED
APPROACHING MIDNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT ONCE A
COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. WEST WINDS COULD GUST UP
TO 25-30 KT OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
LEADS TO FAVORABLE MIXING POST FROPA. SEAS SHOULD ALSO RANGE
BETWEEN 3-5 FT ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT ACROSS OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS EARLY EVENING, THEN BUILD UP TO 4-6 FT ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 6-8 FT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS APPROACHING DAYBREAK
POST FROPA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR LOCAL
WATERS OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
25-30 KT WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS, AFTER WHICH ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL DROP
OFF.
RIP CURRENTS: MODEST SWELL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY,
MAINTAINING A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALL LOCAL
SC/GA BEACHES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL
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